A ‘Critical Moment’ For Altcoins While Bitcoin Needs To Fill In $8,750 Gap For A ‘Healthier & More Sustainable’ Rally
- CME Bitcoin Futures gap at $8,750 if filled will lead to a “healthier and more sustainable” rally
- In the past month, altcoins surged harder than Bitcoin
- October rally has led the altcoins market value to a “critical moment”
In the past month, the Bitcoin price has surged about 12% as it currently trades at $9,106. The leading cryptocurrency is down about 3% in the past 24 hours after surging to $10,600 last week.
According to crypto exchange OKEx’s latest market report, with S&P 500 making a new all-time high, it could trigger Bitcoin to “turn from a digital gold risk-off asset mode to a risk-on asset mode.”
As for BTC price, if we take a look at the CME Bitcoin Futures daily chart, most of the gaps filled within days from when they were produced. The exception was the June 17 gap that eventually got filled in late September.
Bitcoin’s October rally has also produced a “huge breakaway gap” at $8,750 and about $9,700, which if history repeats itself, will be filled as well. If it got filled, the exchange wrote, “the rally would be healthier and more sustainable if the gap got filled before starting a new trend.”
While BTC is up 12% in the past month, altcoins have spiked much higher. According to Coincodex, XRP (18.36%), Bitcoin Cash (29.20%), BNB (24.68%), BSV (57.54%), TRX (46.93%), Link (49.57%), NEO (44.21%), Ontology (42.74%), BAT (34.83%), and 0x (37.57%) are some of the prominent gainers.
Now, the October rally has led the altcoins market value to a “critical moment,” that will answer whether it is really the beginning of an “alt season.”
According to OKEx, it would be “premature” to make the call of the start of an alt season just from September and October altcoin rally.
This would be the third attempt by altcoins market cap to break the channel and retest the 365-day moving average. If BTC continues to consolidate at its current level, it won’t be good for altcoins.
Data provider The Tie also points out a continued divergence between the NVTweet Ratio (Market Cap/ (30 Day Avg. Tweet Vol*1M) of Bitcoin and major alts since July.
We are seeing a continued divergence since July between the NVTweet Ratio of Bitcoin and major alts.
Bitcoin's NVTweet increase signifies that it is now trading at a higher multiple of its social activity vs. alts.
NVTweet Ratio = Market Cap/ (30 Day Avg. Tweet Vol*1M) pic.twitter.com/wxvTuECy7V
— The TIE (@TheTIEIO) October 29, 2019
If the leading cryptocurrency’s NVTweet Ratio continues to increase while alts’ decrease, it is a sign of “institutional flow” into Bitcoin. Moreover, Bitcoin’s market cap growth surpassing its social activity growth is a sign of retail interest.
Bitcoin’s long term sentiment is declining, states The Tie, but is significantly higher than tweet volume.
Currently, BTC has moderately high sentiment with low tweet volume, which historically is a predictor of positive asset movement.