A Perfect Storm for Bitcoin Combined with the Price Action seen at the Start of Last Bull Run
Another volatile week is past us but this time the prices were rising. Bitcoin is trading around $7,550 while Ether is particularly looking strong, just inches away from $200. Overall the market added $10 billion this week.
The gains have resulted in BItcoin moving back to the level seen before the dump on March 12, the year-to-date returns have also turned positive. Bitcoin is about to print its sixth straight weekly green candle, something not seen since 2019 which was the start of the bull run.
Although the current level is showing strong resistance, bulls seem to be in control for now. This level acted as support in June and September last year but struggled here for about 7 weeks in Nov-Dec.
According to Arcane research, a weekly close above $7,700 would signal a “strong case for the bulls,” while bears are looking for a close below this level and the first red weekly candle since the market crash.
The network meanwhile is healthy with the number of active entities spiking to the level not seen since the price top in 2019. The level of demand on the Bitcoin network, however, dropped further over the last week.
A moment in the spotlight for Bitcoin
With the world still in turmoil, volatility going forward is likely and caution is warranted though over the past couple of months exchange volumes and real transaction volumes have increased significantly, noted Marco Santori who joined crypto exchange Kraken amidst this turmoil.
According to him, the implementation of modern monetary theory around the world spurred by the pandemic had made people pay attention to Bitcoin as an alternative to the unprecedented printing of fiat government money.
“It’s something of a perfect storm for Bitcoin right now,” he said. Although there are thousands of other cryptos out there, “this is really a moment in the spotlight for Bitcoin in particular as an asset whose supply is fixed and reliable and not subject to political whims.”
Also, zero and negative interest rate is another argument for crypto which lowers the appeal of holding traditional fiat currency and reduces the opportunity cost of holding a non-income generating asset.
Scarce goods will come off as the big winners
All of this is happening just a few days ahead of having that will cut down miner inflow from 1800 BTC per day to 900 BTC per day.
But this will be the third time that lower supply than before will enter the market. Because it isn’t new information, from an efficient market perspective, this information is priced in but because this event will reinforce bitcoin’s “value proposition as a scarce asset,” in a world where the money supply is being increased dramatically it will attract new investors to bitcoin.
“As we’ve been moving closer to the halving, of course global markets are in a state of flux, but overall BTC’s resilience has persisted,” said Ryan Rabaglia, head of trading at Hong Kong-based digital asset platform, OSL.
The macro backdrop is most favorable to bitcoin right now, and how the massive amounts of money central banks are printing around the world to fight off the economic effects of COVID-19 would affect the market.
“There’s a big possibility that scarce goods (stocks, gold, bitcoin) will come off as the big winners in this massive QE experiment we’re seeing play out minute by minute,” said Daniel Vogel, CEO of Bitso, Mexico’s first cryptocurrency exchange.
But as per him, not just bitcoin but altcoins will also see price appreciation, as they usually do “without any real technological or logical reasons.”