After Posting 4th Consecutive Positive Monthly Close for the First Time since May-August ’17, Bitcoin Drops over 10%


  • The best monthly performance of Bitcoin since November of 2017 & 4th best month since 2013
  • The positive wealth effect in crypto is back but did we come too far too fast?
  • Leverage on BitMEX in May was the first positive funding rate month since October 2018

Some consolidation would be healthy for the market, but the current drop down is “significantly different”

Last month was the most profitable month for Bitcoin in a long time. In May, we recorded 58 percent gains after starting the month at $5,300 to climb upwards to $9,100 level but closing the month at $8,500.

However, it wasn’t just May 2019 that has turned out to be good for the leading cryptocurrency after the brutal winter of 2018 that saw Bitcoin hitting the bottom at $3,150. Till date in 2019, we have surged more than 100 percent after entering the year at $3,700.

In January we closed lower at about $3,300 level only to close next month at $3,800 level. From here, we started to see the greens. We closed the March month at $4,100 while April registered a rally to above $5,200.

BTC/USD chart, Source: TradingView

In the latest Twitter thread, crypto analyst, Rptr45 shares how May was the best monthly performance of Bitcoin since November of 2017 when it saw 61.6% gains. May also marked the 4th best month since 2013 (465% returns in November 2013 and 176% returns in March 2013) and 10th best month since 2011.

Following a top performing month, the subsequent performance has been surprisingly positive in the 1-3 months that could be attributed to these outlier months kicking off bull runs, explains Rptr45. If we take a look at Bitcoin’s historical performance, it is exhibiting top 20% trailing 30-60D performance.

“The difference between BTCs realized cap & market cap averaged 59.5% during the month, the greatest delta since March of ’18 and now sits at >80%. The positive wealth effect in crypto is back but did we come too far too fast? In ’15-’16 it took 8 months to get back to 80%+.”

He further points out the realized cap versus the market cap difference of the flagship cryptocurrency is approaching the levels of Q1 2018. Bitcoin also shows the highest realized volume since last November at approximately 90 percent.

As for the leverage on BitMEX, in May it was the first positive funding rate month since October 2018 for Bitcoin while the first 11 days had a negative funding rate. Now, he BitMEX Insurance Fund is at a record high with the second greatest month since last November ever in notional terms by adding 3,324 BTC.

Talking about the profits, Rptr45 sys, it was the best month, however, though some consolidation would be healthy for the market, the current drop down is “significantly different than anything else we've seen during the bear market post January '18.”

Bitcoin trader and investor Bob Loukas says, a clean break below $8,000 brings in a top but now the question is of time-frame, intermediate term trend or a 60-day cycle.

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