- Trader Jacob Canfield doesn’t see $5,500 happening now but longing $6800 in January
- MACD crosses bullish after 12 months of bear market but doesn’t mean we are going parabolic soon
- BitMEX 2020 prediction for Bitcoin price – over $2,000 but under $15,000
- Mainstream Media meanwhile still “Complete Nonsense”
Yesterday, we were trading as high as $7,690 and today we are back to $7,156 on Bitstamp. It’s been over a month that Bitcoin has ventured to $8,000 level and two months since we saw $10,000.
Now, that we are back to trading at $7,182, at the time of writing, as per Coincodex, trading volume has also dropped to just $288 million.
$5,500 Not Happening?
Bitcoin is boring and according to some crypto commentators like an economist and trader Alex Kruger still in a bear market just like trader Josh Rager who says BTC is in a downtrend.
But some have started turning bullish. As we reported, trader Scott Melker pointed out the weekly BTC chart has confirmed “the massive bullish divergence in oversold territory on Stochastic RSI.”
Crypto commentators have been expecting a downwards move in BTC price but with its move to $7,690, a surge of 19% in five days, BTC has turned them bullish.
Trader Jacob Canfield who has been hoping for $5,500 now doesn’t see it happening. “Longing $6700-6800 in January will be a good deal,” he revised.
However, on the correction that BTC saw overnight, trader Gainzy Claus warns that the CME gap hasn’t been filled yet.
But we ain’t going Parabolic soon either
Market analyst CryptoWolf has called out a new bullish cycle as the MACD crosses bullish after more than 12 months of a bear market. But he cautions that it “doesn’t mean in any way that we are going parabolic soon.”
He notes that the latest studies suggest bull cycles are getting longer so the peak is expected by the end of 2023. Also, it might not be all the way to the moon as lower ROI compared to previous cycles is expected, as such his next projected target is $120,000.
Bitcoin. 1 Month chart
Flag the MACD simple MA oscillator.
MACD has crossed bullish after over 12 months of bear market.
A new bullish cycle has just started. pic.twitter.com/hlfV01w8dE
— CryptoWolf (@IamCryptoWolf) December 24, 2019
In a crazy and not so serious prediction for 2020, crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX has called for Bitcoin at over $2,000 but under $15,000.
– $BTC over $2,000, but also under $15,000
– $BTC dominance under 75%, but also over 30%
– CSW says: 2021 is year the Chinese shutdown BTC mining & 1m of his coins hit the market (Whatever else)
– #MATIC falls in value by over 80% @NemanjaMatic
Happy New Year
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) December 24, 2019
Mainstream Media still “Complete Nonsense”
Bloomberg Markets editor took to Twitter to explain why the concept of using Stock-to-flow analysis is “complete nonsense for anticipating the future value of Bitcoin.” Joe Weisenthal says scarcity is not an appropriate or influential factor to determine BTC price.
“To get to $268 billion worth of BTC, there's no need for more coins at all. All people need to do is bid up the price of Bitcoin until it doubles. Then voila. Society's desire to hold $268 billion of BTC would be satisfied. The math is simple. Society holds what it wants.”
Analyst PlanB, who is the one to use stock-to-flow model to determine BTC price then took to Twitter and argued,
“you say scarcity is not an influential factor in pricing bitcoin, but Satoshi says bitcoin is scarce as gold, do you have any work/analysis supporting your claims or is it just your emotion?”
However, Weisenthal is not the only one who has found flaws in the model, industry expert Kruger has also targeted the model.
“The Stock to Flow model is to bulls, what the Tether Manipulation paper is to bears. Both based on fancy looking statistical models (more so the latter). Both are flawed. Doubt whoever believes in these extremes will change their minds. The mind believes what it wants to believe,” said Kruger.
Bulls, however, aren't discouraged by these issues by any means.