- “The breakout is clear, Get your rockets & lambos ready bois, we goin to da moon,” says Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics
- But BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes the blow-off top is near
Bitcoin price is hitting new highs of 2020 as yesterday we went to $9,429 on Bitstamp. This uptrend was on the back of strong volumes. As per Messari, the top 10 exchanges with real volume saw more than $1.3 billion worth of bitcoin changing hands.
Bitcoin contracts on the CME Group were also higher than they have been in a while. These paper contracts were topped at about $800 million and Bakkt’s physically settled contracts were also higher than the average at $11 million for the day.
Futures volumes have been rising for four consecutive days as bitcoin approaches the $10k mark pic.twitter.com/oMIPTWj5Mg
— skew (@skewdotcom) January 29, 2020
“Futures basis at local highs. Spot is creeping up. The blow off top seems nigh,” is what BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes to say about the current market.
Bitcoin Crushes 200 DMA & Downward Channel
Bitcoin’s latest move “completely pulverized” the downward-facing channel and the 200 Day Moving Average. In the technical terms, Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics and former eToro analyst says, “it doesn't get much more bullish than this.”
The downward Channel is Officially Pulverized! 🔥💥🔥
The downward Channel is Officially Pulverized! At this point, the breakout is clear. The 200 DMA is in the dust. Get your rockets & lambos ready bois, we goin to da moon. 🚀🏎️🌛 pic.twitter.com/rDZVPjsKg9
— Mati Greenspan [tweets are not trading advice] (@MatiGreenspan) January 29, 2020
Although recently we saw several fake breakouts and this could be reversed too, Greenspan says “it's a lot less likely this time.” This is because unlike the late-October move, “this move has happened more gradually, allowing the market to really give a proper timely test of the relevant price levels,” he noted.
This he says has happened many times in his career when a large move widely anticipated by the market takes its time but when the technical breakout finally happens, there is a moment of shock and disbelief in the market.
Halving & Fed the Strongest Drivers
Greenspan, however, found a deterioration in the correlation between the price volatility and transactions on Bitcoin blockchain.
The main chain has been seeing “very consistent volumes” in 2020 remaining well within the $500-$2 billion range. But this range has been lately getting narrowed. This Greenspan said in his daily newsletter,
“those who are trading actively on bitcoin, no matter what venue, are likely not settling their transactions back to an actual wallet. Therefore, we can probably conclude that a lower percentage of on-chain transactions can be attributed to short term speculation.”
People he said are getting excited about the halving with just 103 days left to the event. This is one of the “strongest divers from a fundamental perspective” combined with the “Fed continuing to push money into the markets,” said Greenspan.