- Bitcoin price falls back to $7,850 level but volume still strong
- BTC could tank to $4,888 in late June – Analyst Jacob Canfield
Bitcoin price has gone back to the level before the jump it saw yesterday after Donald Trump alleviated Middle East worries.
War cancelled, dump it.$BTC
— Hsaka (@HsakaTrades) January 8, 2020
From $8,460 level, we have fallen 5.25% to $7,850 as per Coincodex while managing the daily trading volume of $1.34 billion, which is still high.
As veteran trader Peter Brandt explained there have been a number of bullish factors supporting the market with marketable to hold support at the lower boundary of the multi-year channel, small H&S bottom on the daily chart, and pending penetration of over six months channel.
But as he pointed out, “if enough crypto-cultists have been shaken out since Dec '17,” only then a new bull market has begun in BTC otherwise the answer is no.
Is it possible Bitcoin hasn't bottomed?
Now that the euphoria has ended, it’s safe to say it wasn’t the start of a new bull market.
Brandt, in fact, previously called out for $5,400 in July, a few weeks after the Bitcoin halving in May.
Just like Brandt, analyst Jacob Canfield also forecasts BTC’s fall to $5,500 in Q1 of 2020. In his latest “crazy” analysis which he says is “very compelling,” Bitcoin could go down to $4,888 in late June.
“Is it possible Bitcoin hasn't bottomed? This is a bit of a crazy analysis, but I think it's worth keeping your mind open to all possibilities. While I was bullish from the $6800/$6900 levels, I see a similarity between 2018 and now,” said Canfield.
According to his long term analysis that will take months to play out, we can see one more high to around $9,000. However, if BTC closes above $10,000 and the daily 20MA, the scenario will invalidate itself.
A 28% drop before the halving?
The analysis is crazy because Canfield says we have a halving coming up and everyone thinks around the event the price will increase significantly and his analysis is the opposite of that.
However, not everyone is in favor of a bullish havling. Many commentators actually believe, that this time halving will not only be a non-event but it could also result in the prices of digital assets falling.
In comparison to the past halving, the first event on Nov. 28th, 2012, BTC price dropped 30% in the months leading up to the halving. But post-halving prices surged massively.
On the second time around, before the halving, BTC dropped 27% and the same after it hit the 200 MA daily.
“What this means is that it's possible we see a drop prior to the halving. Both prior had 28% drops,” said the analyst.
The critical point here is 200MA, Canfield says even if price pumps up to $9,950, we would still be on pace for this analysis. But a daily close above the 200MA and $10,000 to make a higher high will be that would “invalidate” the structure.