Analyzing a DApp Development’s Crypto-Farmers Almanac, aka Long Range Ecosystem Forecast
Decentralized Applications (dApps) have taken off in recent memory as competitors like Ethereum, EOS, TRON, and NEO have worked to make their platforms dominant and attract developers.
TheNextWeb said in January that just 2% of Ethereum’s transaction volume came from gambling dApps, while TRON’s was nearly 95%. EOS’s volume for gambling dApps was at 70%.
While some have expressed worry about the rise of gambling in the dApp and wider crypto space, others suggest the activity could represent a bright future for the continued growth of the dApp world as a whole.
Forecasting Future dApp Development
Aaron Lyn Anderson wrote in a March Medium post about the February ConsenSys “#cryptospring An Atmospheric Report,” where Joseph Lubin expressed some bullish thoughts on dApps.
The report covered the launch of Ethereum 2.0 on testnet and other initiatives, like the DutchX exchange platform being controlled by the dxDAO, which is community owned.
According to Anderson, one of the biggest steps forward was POA Network’s launch of the xDai sidechain, which has “already demonstrated better than credit card user experience on DApps like Burner Wallet and Ching!.”
Anderson said dApp developers can take heart that a lot of Ethereum’s research and development can be repurposed for a cheaper cost on other chains.
He wrote how this season of ‘cryptospring’, filled with building and experimenting with dApps, should last for “for almost a year because the global economy is still surprisingly strong and stable.
He also pointed out how for most of this year, there
“will be very little competition for investor funding and startups will absorb all currently available talent to work on an unprecedented variety of DApps.”
Harsh Crypto Coverage And the ‘Cryptosummer’
Anderson said the ensuing ‘cryptosummer’ would be long due to sustained negative media coverage about cryptocurrency.
“general goodwill towards cryptocurrency won’t return until significantly long periods of sustained growth and consolidation have passed.”
“the maturity and diversity of DApp development will provide a hedge against that parabolic exuberance because investors will be comparing DApps on their own merits instead of the merits of their underlying chain.”
According to Anderson, this will create a scenario where dApps will be further refined to the point where they are “superior” to top companies like Facebook, Visa, PayPal, and YouTube in terms of product and user experience.
March 2023: Smooth Sailing In The ‘Cryptoautumn’
Anderson extrapolated on his idea of the ‘cryptoautumn,’ where we would see
“multi-million DAUs on several DApps.”
He perceived a world with an endless number of crypto startups that get funding, get listed, and get traded.
He then took a markedly darker turn and wrote about the ability for people to “have unprecedented power to affect entire institutions” through blockchain powered dApps that could even give
“collective control over currency, debt, and creditworthiness.”
Anderson wrote how it is important that those insides of the crypto world to plan ahead for the future and for dApp developers to move forward in a conscious manner