Analyzing Any Similarities from the 2019 Bitcoin Rally vs. 2017’s Going from $8K to $20K in Under 2 Weeks
Considering that Bitcoin was just a little over $3,150 at the end of 2018, the current price which is just a little shy of $8,000 is considered impressive by most people. In general, Bitcoin has increased more than 100% and if analysts are to be believed, it will do bigger numbers before the year is over.
Popular enthusiast and co-founder of Fundstrat Global, Thomas Lee, has expressed bullish views for Bitcoin and also said the quick jump in price is not a strange one as historically, Bitcoin is known to be capable of doing attractive numbers in a pretty short period of time, a behaviour that almost never happens in other non-crypto financial markets.
Lee expressed this in a tweet a while ago but also pointed out a drop in value, saying:
“Reminder that BTC generally generates all of its performance within 10D of any year.
–ex the top 10 days, BTC is down 25% annually since 2013”.
Can Bitcoin Perform As Well As It Did In 2017?
Alex Saunders, a noted cryptocurrency researcher as expressed that that the $8,300 mark was significant in 2017. He explained that Bitcoin was able to reach its all-time high, shortly after crossing that mark. Saunders said:
“The last time bitcoin had a daily close above $8300 whilst in a uptrend was Nov 25 2017. It then took 13 days (11 up. 2 sideways. 0 down.) to reach $20k.”
At the moment, there’s no real way to definitively tell if Bitcoin can begin a quick and very high jump to its former all time high but generally, expecting that kind of surge might be a bit of a stretch. However, as unlikely as a jump to $20,000 from $8,000 is, there is every likelihood that there will be a significant rally sometime before the year ends.
Balaji Srinivasan who used to be the Chief Technical Officer (CTO) at major cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, has said that Bitcoin is very prone to rising and dropping in cycles. He expressed that in the last ten years, this has happened four times, almost always ending a prolonged bear market.
According to him:
“Yeah, it’s the Carlota Perez/Gartner Hype Cycle thing all over again. Virtually every major technology has an initial spike of interest, then a dip, and then a long-term rise to success. The dot-com bubble is the canonical example, but there are many more. Bitcoin alone has gone through at least four of these cycles.”
The reason this pattern is consistent with an increase after a bear market might just be a combination of efforts from all stakeholders including institutions, developers and traders, in a bid to support and strengthen the asset and the market.
Instability Shouldn’t Worry Investors
Sometimes, price fluctuations in the Bitcoin market can be directly felt with the rest of the altcoins. Over the last couple of days for example, Bitcoin has experienced significant pullbacks causing it to drop from above $8,000 almost all the way down to $7,000 again.
According to some market players, this instability could be advantageous for other altcoins who struggle in Bitcoin’s shadow. On of such players has stated that:
“altcoins [are] starting to run” and many “more altcoins will start to run as we scale in.”
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Bitcoin’s price is $36,593.24 BTC/USD exchange rate today. The real-time BTC market cap of $693.12 Billion currently ranks #1 with a chart dominance at 62.37%, daily trading volume of $17.6 Billion and live coin value change of BTC -4.48 in the last 24 hours.
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