Augur (REP) Predictions Market Reaches a Control of the House Conclusion in Saying Republicans Won
The Augur predictions market has been waiting on a determination of their latest question – “Which party will control the House after 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?” On Reddit, an individual claimed to be a report for these predictions, stating that he will announce the Republicans’ control of the House in the response to this vote. The market ended on December 10th, though the Democrats won the election.
The following day, on December 11th, a Twitter user commented:
The Democrats won the election, but the market expiration date was 12/10/18. Because the date was not specified in the market & expiration date is 12/10/18, one could argue that Republicans is correct outcome. Democrats don’t officially take control until 1/3/19.
— nicky.eth (@NTmoney) December 11, 2018
With predictions markets, the questions are somewhat complicated in their ultimate answer. The question asks who will be controlling the House, rather than who will be victorious in the election. Technically, both sides are presently correct – the Democrats will be controlling it in January, while Republicans are doing so now.
The reporter, who uses the handle Poyo-Poyo on Reddit, posted a follow-up to the pre-announcement on December 11th. The post said:
“I am sorry for any confusion or financial loss my gimmick house market may have caused. The intention is, and always has been, to measure the status of the House of Congress on the 10th of December, NOT the status after the new congress takes office. Thusly, I shall, and am required to, report as “Republican” when I submit my official selection for this market later today. Again, I am truly sorry for any damage to traders, or to the Augur Community as a whole for this ambiguity, and I hope the Augur World continues to thrive along toward the future, and I plan to continue to play my important role in its development over the coming years.”
Now, considering that the post was four days ago, what is the present state of the prediction market? According to the official Augur Market website, the prediction is closed with 90% of voters believing that Democrats are victorious. Though it ended on December 10th, it was last traded only an hour ago.