Bearish Catalysts for Bitcoin Price
This week, Bitcoin is ranging between $9,050 and $9,500. Currently, we are trading just above $9,200 after yesterday, Bitcoin’s price dropped $150 in seconds on Bitstamp, trading well below the rest of the market.
On the weekend, the bitcoin market has gone quiet, with just about $700 million in ‘real’ trading volume.
This ranging is not good for bitcoin but is bullish for altcoins that are already feeling the greens.
According to trader Crypto Michael, until BTC breaks out of the range, “anything between $8,500 and $10,500 is playground time for altcoins, and that could last a few months longer.”
Currently, the digital asset is holding support above the $9,000 barrier, and a breakthrough of $9,300 could push it towards $9,600.
However, Bitcoin futures aren’t looking good, and their position on CME is identical to the time when BTC crashed in March.
Bitcoin CME Futures; Looks Bad ngl.. almost identical positioning as the big drop last time and a clear descending triangle full of wicks at resistance, trading below POC.
There 'appears' to be decent bid @ spot exchanges but it's not exactly an enticing long at HTF. imo. pic.twitter.com/4KgucSR8FL
— f i l ₿ f i l ₿ (@filbfilb) July 10, 2020
However, analyst FilbFilb doesn’t think “there will be a dump anything like last time.”
In March, bitcoin crashed in line with the rest of the global markets during the spreading coronavirus pandemic. Currently, the markets are flying with tech stocks in the lead.
Some people are still tracking the S&P 500’s movement during the 1929 crash with the ongoing one, which is still in sync.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) July 1, 2020
Although markets are surging, the risk of inflation and spike in coronavirus cases remains a tail risk.
There have been many days that some states in the US continue to see a record number of new infections. This further puts a smooth reopening at risk.
With the Fed using extraordinary measures to stimulate the economy, inflation is also on the radar of experts. Although a sudden spike is not called, UBS strategist Bhanu Bajwa feels it could be a potentially damaging long-shot scenario.
“We think the economy is currently far from unleashing these inflationary forces, but with COVID-19 cases globally and in the US still rising, we cannot yet completely rule out this tail risk,” he said. “Further, the inflation surge could happen quickly and with little warning.”
The additional round of stimulus checks, tax reductions, PPP loans, and enhanced unemployment insurance benefits may aid the inflation outlook. And an inflation spike is not good for stocks. Rather could be disastrous. In the 1970s, inflation doubled to about 11% that resulted in a 40% decline for the equities market.
However, it would be interesting to see how such a scenario, if it happens, would affect bitcoin, which has been called an inflation hedge by the likes of billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones but remains in high correlation with SPX.
Tether co-founder Brock Pierce, who recently announced that he is running for US President, said he is unsure whether the stablecoin will be able to weather the latest assault from regulators and government officials.
“Tether is, I think, one of the most important innovations in currency, but it also seemed like one of the higher risk businesses,” Pierce told Bloomberg. He hasn’t been involved with Tether since 2015.
Just this week, international regulators also recommended that stablecoins have to take greater steps to prevent money laundering and terrorism financing.
“We will work with and listen to the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) in order to continually improve our compliance function as these markets develop,” said Stu Hoegner, general counsel for the Bitfinex crypto exchange.
He also said the existing compliance practices are already the best in the industry. About the lawsuit, he just said Bitfinex “respects” the court’s order.