Bears or Bulls: Will Bitcoin get the “Real Opportunity” to Test $9,500?
- A weekly close below $11,510 will give us a real opportunity” to retest $9,532 whiel a close above to retest local highs
- Easing of tensions with the US and China not hurting BTC price
After seeing a sharp downward move earlier this week, for the past two days, Bitcoin is maintaining above $11,000 and flirting around $12,000 level, unable to make a strong move up yet.
Currently, we are at $11,731, in the green by 0.09% while managing the daily trading volume of $4.87 billion, which kept steady throughout the day.
For the time being, BTC is stuck, giving no signs of the direction it will move in but has the resistant and support levels, as shared by economist and trader Alex Kruger present at,
– R: 12000, 12500, 13000, 13300, 13600, 13900-14000, 15000, 17400, 20000, moon.
– S: 11600-11500, 11300, 10800, 10300, 10000, 9600.
Crypto trader and investor Josh Rager is watching for a weekly close above $11,510 as there’s confluence at that level.
If we close below then, he says, we will get a “real opportunity” to retest $9,532 while a close above lead us to retest local highs at $13,800s.
The Bitcoin Market State
The market is currently ranging around $11,600 that “coincidentally” is the 50% level for the 2017-18 move, explain Kruger. Price, he said should run above $12,500 and below $11,300 that mark yesterday’s highs and lows.
The bullish factor of the current market he says is that weak hands shook off. BitMEX funding has also dropped from 0.32% to 0.01% while margin longs/shorts have dropped drastically since the high. It is currently running at its lowest since May 11th, the day Bitcoin broke above $6,400 and the bull market officially began.
As for the bearish part, the price Kruger says is still overextended, so we are likely to consolidate and catch up with daily EMA 20 that is currently at $10,265.
On the move down, however, we have lots of stops below $10k that makes it an “attractive target for large traders gunning for stops, and make the $9900-$9600 area great for longs.”
Fundamentally, many bullish catalysts still ahead: Fidelity, Bakkt, Ameritrade, Etrade. Bakkt would begin testing its futures Jul/22. Retail interest is steadily climbing, and so is institutional interest, which has been piqued due to $BTC's performance and macro narratives. pic.twitter.com/vSXJglkqyO
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) June 29, 2019
Bitfinex-Tether hearing in July may also add downside fireworks, said Kruger.
“I'd be careful with longing here. Closed long for now unless the consecutive 4H candles closes above that wick, only then I'll re-long,” analsyt Crypto Squeeze said.
Easing Of Tensions With The US And China Not Hurting BTC Price
One of the developments seen today is US President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping agreeing to restart trade talks.
“We're going to work with China where we left off,” he said, averting an escalation feared by the markets.
While the negotiations continue, Trump said existing US tariffs would remain in place against Chinese imports. But additional tariffs that he threatened to slap on Chinese goods won’t go forward for the “time being.”
The US-China trade war that negatively affected the traditional market, rather worked in favor of Bitcoin, working as a hedge and helping people move money out of China.
Though Trump spoke with Xi in length, doubt still persists about both the nations’ willingness to compromise on long term solutions.
However, it didn’t have any effect on the price of BTC, as noted by Bitcoin bull and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.
“Easing of tensions with US and China and even the surprise of easing restrictions on huawei does not seem to be hurting bitcoin BTC. After pullback from $14k to $10k (which TA @rsluymer expected and was textbook Fibo), Bitcoin seems to be OK with developments.”
Meanwhile, Barry Silbert of Blockchain Capital took a jab at gold, “how’s gold responding to the news? oh wait, we’ll need to wait until Monday to find out.”