Best Case Scenario for Bitcoin is Govt’s Overspending & Losing Control: Economist
The price of the leading cryptocurrency is stuck at just about $5,100, keeping stable for now. Meanwhile, stock futures fell today and the markets remained highly volatile as the government's response to the coronavirus fallout unfolds.
Stock Market Rose on Fed Stimulus
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 821 points, indicating yet another over 1000-points loss at Wednesday’s open. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are also down. Futures contracts for the indices yet again went in “limit down” territory, triggering a circuit break after they hit a 5% loss.
On Tuesday, the markets rebounded from their deepest route since 1987 after the Trump administration's massive fiscal stimulus plans had the investors hopeful. The White House is designing a fiscal package of over $1 trillion that includes a direct payment to Americans, financial relief to small businesses and the airline industry, allowing individuals and corporations to defer tax payments of up to $1 million and $10 million respectively.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Republican senators that unemployment could reach 20% if the stimulus package isn’t enacted.
Gold prices rose on Wednesday following the US Federal Reserve's attempt to boost liquidity in the market. Spot gold rose by 0.7% to $1,538 per ounce while US gold futures were up 0.8%. Fed’s measures also supported the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield which went up to a two-week high on Tuesday.
Bullish for Bitcoin in both the short and long term
Bitcoin that went up to $5,600 yesterday, is currently around $5,150, keeping above $5k.
— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) March 13, 2020
“I hear people saying BTC is holding up well, yet no other asset (ex- some individual stocks and other cryptos) has dropped more than BTC,” said economist and trader Alex Kruger. According to him,
“Bitcoin did not behave like a store of value nor a safe haven” as it collapsed over 60% and there’s “nothing wrong in BTC moving up and down with risk assets in such a black swan event.”
However, he points out that those that are “ardently criticize governments' economic aid packages” are doing so without realizing the fiscal stimulus is not only the reason for the stock market to jump but also for bitcoin. Kruger said,
“Those packages are bullish for the price of bitcoin in both the short and long term. In theory, the best case scenario for BTC is a world where governments overspend and lose control.”
Short-term holders got spooked
It is worth noting that gold also got sold-off aggressively during the past week's carnage. It wasn’t anything new either as investors look to get their hands on cash just like they did in 2008. During that financial crisis, gold exploded after and Kruger like many others also believes “the same will happen with both assets (bitcoin and gold) this time.”
Also, with bitcoin, it is extremely important to note that long-term holders are confident in the crypto asset. The recent sell-off was because of the short-term sellers.
“The volatility certainly didn't come from the >5y HODLers,” noted Unchained Capital. The vast majority of it came from “UTXOs 6 months old or younger.” The 3-5 year band was flat, totally apathetic, only .02%, or ~3,650 BTC from the >5y band moved. Another crypto analysis company Glassnode also noticed,
“Bitcoin HODLer Net Position Change has been positive during the recent price dump. This means long term investors have been accumulating discounted BTC and increasing their positions.”