Bitcoin Analyst says, Too Much Volatility in Trading Volume to Hit Bottom yet
Bitcoin is trading near $3,500 while managing the daily trading volume of $5 billion. Whereas the trading volume of the overall crypto market is at $16 billion that has taken a rise from yesterday’s $13 billion.
Currently, the market is talking about the bitcoin bottom and if it really is in. A few experts like Willy Woo, a crypto researcher, and analyst, believes we are not there yet. Due to the high volatility in the volume of coins that are being traded, the bottom has to wait for now.
To balance out my pessimism, here's a summary to the bull side by @renato_shira. Many of our on-chain indicators suggest the bottom may be near. While I don't concur with this conclusion, I like the analysis, it's a good summary of the bull case.https://t.co/Qp2A5OjebF
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 14, 2019
“Is the bottom in? Not yet. In order for the bottom to be in, the volume of coins changing hands becomes steady, currently, it's very erratic, synonymous with the middle of the bear detox. (In this chart I'm tracking the volatility of on-chain volume).”
Though he doesn’t concur with the Bitcoin bottom being in, he does note that
“Many of our on-chain indicators suggest the bottom may be near.”
Woo shares the analysis of Renato Shirakashi that he says is a
“good summary of the bull case.”
The co-founder of Scup, Shirakashi presented his case of Bitcoin bottom in a blog post that is based on the numbers involving realized value, MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value), and NVT Ratio.
He puts forward a case stating that at $6,000 level, Bitcoin had a long way to go down as
“there was enough supply. Demand was going down. So prices went down.”
But now as he points out that demand is still low but supply is significantly low. From here,
“as time goes by, prices getting stable, people will start to be more confident, and demand will grow.”
Many argue that there hasn’t been enough pain the market to hit the bottom yet. Even if there hasn't been much of pain, Shirkesh says,
“people that would sell simply don't have the coins to sell, there's no way for the market to go down.”
Moreover, when the realized price (Realized value is the approximation of the average price of BTC when it was last moved/bought) is above the current price, it becomes much harder for people to sell as no one wants to incur losses.
The bottom for bitcoin has finally reached says Shirakashi but it in no way means that Bitcoin is going straight up. So, what does this mean?
“We will be in a 3k~5k range for a relatively long time, as demand starts to build up again (or some big event happens meanwhile). There will be a series of little tests the market will make to confirm this is a safe place.”
Bitcoin being in a bottom, however, contradicts the popular vision running that cycles are getting longer and longer.
“That would be the end of this 1-year cycle, exactly as the 1-year cycle in 2014,”
which puts the new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin after $20,000 from December 2017, in about 3 years.