Bitcoin ATH Retest with ‘Negative Divergence’ Calls For a ‘Larger Corrective Risk Scenario’
Since the middle of last week, the price of Bitcoin has been struggling to decide whether it wants to break $20,000 or finally make the much-anticipated pullback.
The range BTC is trading in is getting narrower, which could bring some good movement. For now, BTC price is keeping around $19,000 with volume low at just around $2.3 billion.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar index remains weak, which, combined with the momentum behind talks on a coronavirus relief bill gaining some speed, should keep risk appetite higher.
But in the short term, the market expects a correction after Bitcoin rejected $20,000 to set up for a stronger base for another vertical move and not risk another “uglier” breakdown down the road.
As Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, pointed out, the retest of 2017 highs came with that of “negative divergence on the RSI.”
In his opinion, “Should the divergence confirm here as well, then Bitcoin is at risk of a sizable retrace move of the recent rally.” However, this won't necessarily be bearish.
According to him, a healthy retrace would be the most common one .382 fib, which offers “perfect confluence” with the 2019 high at $13,790. But this corrective risk scenario isn’t a given if $17,000 holds.
“So Bitcoin is in a watch phase now with the risk of a larger corrective scenario unfolding” with the bottomline that a corrective move is actually healthy and a “buying opportunity.”
Bitcoin is already ready to start the New year on a high note, with $36,000 Bitcoin call options on Deribit being the leading strike at the moment, with 19,995 contracts having a national value of $378 million in open interest.
“The majority of this is on our monthly January 2021 options,” noted the derivatives platform.
However, as we have been seeing, 2020 is different from the last bull run, with institutions rushing in the market more heavily while the 2017 rally was retail-focused.
According to Teddy Fusaro, chief operating officer at Bitwise Asset Management, we’re seeing marginal buyers right now.
“Oftentimes, once you sit down and you study the asset class, and you do develop an opinion, you do become a buyer. And I think that's really what we have started to see really since the late summer,” he said.