Bitcoin Back Above $40,000 as USD Falters and the Rotation to Alts Begins


  • The week started on a green note, and going into the weekend, the leading digital asset seems ready to revisit the all-time high of $42,000, hit on Jan. 8.
  • The price of Bitcoin has already moved to $40,500 today with $8.64 billion in ‘real’ volume, as per Messari.
  • Up over 7% in the past 24 hours, the leading digital is recording 36.65% gains YTD.

As we reported, the bear trend has been coming to an end as per GT Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator. Moreover, a strengthening dollar that has been weighing on Bitcoin and kept it stuck in a consolidation phase is taking a fall today.

The Macro

From yesterday’s high of 91.6, today USD seems ready to take a dive under the 91 level after the US jobs report showed that employment growth rebounded less than expected in January.

This provides support for additional government spending to stimulate the economy, and President Joe Biden seized this opportunity to push for swift action on his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. “I’m going to act and I’m going to act fast,” Biden said in remarks Friday at the White House.

Besides benefitting from the greenback’s fall, the money to be pumped into the market will only drive the prices of assets higher.

The Micro

While in the macro, the dollar continues to affect cryptocurrency prices, in the crypto market itself, with smaller coins having pumped this week, this money was to be expected to flow into Bitcoin now.

“Rotation from alts to BTC has finally started,” said trader and economist Alex Kruger. “Things were getting out of whack across alts.”

Moreover, while the mid-tier traders, those with 10-1,000 BTC, have been taking off profit, Bitcoin whales, those with more than 1,000 BTC, continue accumulating coins. As we reported, ever since the beginning of this month, more than 200 Bitcoin whales have appeared in the network.

Meanwhile, institutional investors on CME have been reducing their Bitcoin exposure this week, shedding 1200 contracts for the second straight week.

For the first time in months, asset managers are net short while Other Reportable positioning remains nearly all long. Leveraged funds increased their short positioning slightly; however, as we have reported, they tend to be record long on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to take advantage of the GBTC premium.

According to Markets Science, “these conditions have exhibited a bullish statistical edge historically.”

Another bullish factor is, the small addresses have been FOMO'ing back in rapidly, noted data provider Santiment.

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