Turning from a bear into a bull might sound like something out of Harry Potter. However, as noted bitcoin bear Todd Colvin explains, it doesn’t take transfiguration lessons to transform into a bear.
In an interview with CNBC earlier today, Todd Colvin from Ambrosino Brothers explains which conditions could turn him from a bitcoin bear into a bitcoin bull.
Bitcoin bears, of course, are pessimistic about the price of bitcoin. They expect the price of bitcoin to go down over time. Bitcoin bulls, on the contrary, are optimistic about the price of bitcoin and believe it will go up.
Which conditions need to occur for one of the bitcoin community’s staunchest bears to turn into a bull?
“After the moves we’ve seen, it’s very difficult to be bullish in the short-term,” explained Todd Colvin of Ambrosino Brothers. “But I think if you take a step back there’s a few points and a few variables you can look at.”
Todd then mentioned a number of variables that could influence the price of bitcoin in the future. Overall, Colvin feels these variables will drive the price of bitcoin up or down more so than any other variables affecting the bitcoin network.
The three variables include improved technology and security, increased clarification on government oversight, and better accessibility across the bitcoin community.
“One [variable] is the technology and improved security,” explained Todd. “Those are the things that cause these bear markets is when you have these ‘oops, somebody robbed my wallet off an exchange’ and that caused the last big $1,000 decline we had.”
“The second [variable] is government oversight. And right now the government doesn’t really know how to define or quantify what bitcoin is. They don’t call it a security, so it doesn’t fall under the SEC umbrella. The futures…are under the CFTC so there’s a couple angles to go at but it’s still very confusing.”
The third major variability mentioned by Colvin is accessibility. As bitcoin becomes more and more accessible, we can expect prices to correspondingly rise. Colvin mentioned that people are paying a premium to invest in bitcoin – particularly institutional investors and other fiat currency users who are struggling to enter the space.
“I think if you look at the GBTC, which is the Bitcoin Investment Trust, it trades at a 60% premium to where bitcoin is actually trading. So there is demand for this type of product, it’s just nobody can get their hands on it. So how can we get dollars, fiat currencies, into bitcoin is another question that may bring higher bitcoin prices over the long-term.”
In the interview, Colvin clearly has a bearish stance towards the short-term price of bitcoin. However, the long-term price of bitcoin depends heavily on the three factors listed above. If bitcoin can continue to upgrade the network to improve its security and technology, and can increase accessibility, while clarifying governmental positions on the world’s largest cryptocurrency, then the markets could quickly turn bullish.
Of course, that’s a lot of “if’s” that need to be solved if the price of bitcoin is expected to rise. Nevertheless, it means that one of the world’s most notable bitcoin bears could turn into a bitcoin bull in a short period of time.