Bitcoin Bears Simply Shaking Weak Hands, Big Picture of a Multi-Year Bull Market Intact
For now, Bitcoin has taken to trade around $10,000 level. For over two and a half months, Bitcoin has been trading around $9,000 until late July when we broke out of that level. And now, we have got stuck around the key psychological level.
The good thing is while bitcoin is falling in tandem with US stocks, the S&P 500 that have fallen 7% from its all-time high on Sept. 2nd, continue to go lower, but bitcoin is holding strong above $10k since the day it first slid last week.
While experts are saying the stock market is unwinding again, the crypto market is presenting a buy the dip opportunity with BTC still down about 50% from its all-time highs. Trader Crypto Michael noted,
“Pullbacks are quite healthy. Especially in the build-up of a new cycle. Previous resistance zones flipping for support to confirm a new range. Very nice, similarly to the build-up of 2016. Just taking a bit longer.”
Also, these corrections don't change the bigger picture, which is that “the crypto market is transiting a multi-year bull market since April.” Bears are simply meant to shake the weak riders off.
According to trader and economist Alex Kruger, the main macro trend for BTC price is negative real rates, while in the short term, several factors such as equities blow-off, Sept. FOMC, elections, and fiscal package, could affect the price of the leading digital asset.
Stronger than Ever
Breaching the important $10,000 level, however, means we could decline even further, as we reported, even $8,000 and $7,000 could be in line as well.
With the GTI Global Strength Indicator at 21, well below the level of 30, the coin is trading in oversold territory.
“One by one, the dominoes of what were the most popular trades in the market have fallen,” said Brad Bechtel, head of global currency trading at Jefferies LLC. “The market is in a bit of a liquidation mode, unwinding many of the popular trades from the summer or from the start of the post-COVID rebound. Bitcoin is one of them.”
Despite the 16% drop in the digital asset’s price since last Tuesday, that pushed altcoins much lower; crypto enthusiasts remain bullish as Nigel Green, chief executive officer and founder of deVere, said,
“The fundamentals that make Bitcoin an attractive investment are, in fact, gaining strength.”
“Crypto cynics and finance traditionalists will use the current – and temporary – fall in Bitcoin as an excuse to knock its inherent strengths to fit their own agendas.”
“The reality is that the case for Bitcoin to break out this year is stronger than ever,” citing central bank stimulus initiatives.
In the meantime, the recent pullback has the open interest on bitcoin futures in free fall, down 28% this month. Bitcoin options also point to a short-term bearish outlook with medium-term neutral and long-term bullish.
What’s clear is bitcoin is being used as a hedge, as evident from the increased BTC holdings of whale entities, those with 1,000 – 10,000 BTC. On-chain analyst Willy Woo said,
“Many look at the BTC price and doubt it's a hedge. High net worth individuals and funds certainly consider (bitcoin as a hedge) to be true and betting on that with real money.”