Bitcoin, The Most Important Virtual Currency in the all the Land … Long Live the King of Cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is the most important cryptocurrency in the market and one with an incredible resilience. But how to really consider Bitcoin?
Investing in cryptocurrencies is one of the hottest topics among investors. Will Bitcoin reach all time highs again? Is Bitcoin going to see exorbitant prices? The future of Bitcoin is a very interesting topic to discuss and investors are doing so.
But there is an important uncertainty in the market. Regulatory agencies do not know how to deal with Bitcoin and how to control the market, and individuals know that.
However, bitcoin is one of the strongest profit vehicles since it appeared in the market. Indeed, it is considered as digital gold and gold change the way many individuals have contact with money.
We can start with Bitcoin around $8,200 dollars and analyse the situation from there. This price level is very interesting because if you have invested in Bitcoin, at any given point since its inception, you have 97% of possibilities to have profited from it.
But this is not in this way. Bitcoin has been above $8,200 for just 137 days. If we compare this with the days that Bitcoin has been traded (more than 1900), 97% of the days BTC has been lower than $8,200 dollars.
Clearly, if that would be so easy, we would all be millionaire right now, but this situation also means that there is a 3% chance to sell at the right moment. That said: it is more possible to have bought at the right time that during the highest points.
The author of this analysis (Pedro Febrero) says on the matter:
“Anyone who tells you they’re not in it for the money are either lying or don’t need to care about money because they have so much of it, diversified over so many assets, their risk is quite low.”
What Can We Expect About The Future?
In some ways, Bitcoin can be everything for you, and even, the world’s savior. Or it can just be the worst creation ever made.
Let’s have a look at the market. Bitcoin has been growing since it was created, and it may keep doing it maybe indefinitely. There are many different factors that will influence the price and will define the direction of the market. We are talking about institutional money, Bitcoin exchange trading funds (ETFs) and other financial investments.
Since the very beginning, Bitcoin was specifically thought and designed for long term investors. Short-term investors should think twice about it due to the fact that Bitcoin is one of the most volatile assets in the market.
It is possible to find different situations that would help the price to increase. But there are others that could have the opposite effect, for example, price manipulation.
Market manipulation is a very important topic that has affected and influenced market prices. And indeed, it had a very big influence in the bull run that we experienced at the end of the last year.
Tether manipulated the markets after buying Bitcoin when the prices were dropping very hard. It was not money entering the space or wealthy investors. Instead, it was the influence that Tether had in the price of the most important virtual currency.
As Professor Griffin explains:
“When Bitcoin’s price fell, purchases with Tether tended to increase, helping to reverse the decline. But during times when Bitcoin rose, Griffin said he didn’t see the reverse occur.”
Tether basically helped Bitcoin when it was crashing. In order to do so, Tether had to print large amounts of funds and moving them to Bitfinex to buy BTC. And yes, Bitfinex is owned by those who own Tether.
But the problem is even bigger. Tether did not have any important control from other companies. They say that they own the same amount of dollars as Tether printed. Until now, nobody knows where the funds are stored or whether they are real or not.
Freeh, Sporkin & Sullivan LLP (FFS) said that Tether ‘unencumbered assets exceed the balance of fully-backed USD Tether in circulation as of June 1st, 2018.’
Bitcoin Futures Trading
Let’s have a look at what happened with gold when the first futures contract was traded on the COMEX exchange back in 1974. Three years later, gold was rising to new highs.
It is not possible to avoid speculation in the markets. Humans will always be humans and will always be have ambition. And indeed, there will always be money entering into the asset, so the price will just go up.
Adoption of virtual currencies will start once smart money enters the market. But how will this Smart Money affect the prices and create a new bull run? In order for Bitcoin to be adopted, then it needs to be accepted, but acceptance is closely related to adoption.
This is a very complicated topic to understand. Something similar to the chicken-egg dilemma. They go hand by hand and they refer to the other. In order for one to grow, the other needs to expand as well.
Another important point to mark is that manipulation means higher volatility, something that day traders love and that investors are searching in the markets. Higher volatility means higher profits. This is not exactly what cryptocurrencies should do, but it can bring more and more people into the market.
Ups and downs are very common in the cryptocurrency market. And these movements help bubbles growing… and later pop. The main question that we are asking is when will that happen.
When there is a bear market, there are not so many possibilities to make profitable trades. We can only wait for the market to finish and rebound at some point.
But there are some important rules to follow at all times including: invest only what you are able to lose, buy when there is fear and sell when there is hype, and wait during bear markets.
Those who bought at the all time high are now wondering whether Bitcoin will reach the same prices or not.
Fast Payments Fewer Fees
Transaction fees and times will be reduced with the implementation of the lightning network (LN) in the near future. During the last bull run, Bitcoin had very high fees and low transaction times.
At the moment of writing this article there are more than 3,000 nodes, 11,000 channels and the network has a capacity of 80.87 BTC.
As the LN grows there will be new integrations available and could provide exchanges and users with more security and benefits.
With the Lightning Network it is possible to allow users to trade using dedicated local applications. These kinds of apps are able to run on smartphones or desktops With a Lightning Wallet, funds can be moved into exchanges during a short period of time and execute a trade.
Additionally, with this implementation it will be possible to create channels directly with exchanges that allow for it. This could be useful for those who move money in and out of the exchange in short periods of time.
In the future there are many different improvements related to transactions, there is no limit for the different things that can be done with this technology.
Tokenomic – A Key Factor For Adoption
In the last months, there were many different projects that were selling their tokens and coins. Of course, they presented ideas or different products and services, but they forgot about a very important topic: the purpose they have. We have entered an era where tokenization of all assets and goods could be a real possibility.
The main question that needs to be answered by the team working in an ICO is: what can your business give to decentralization?
If you create a system and platform in which users need to purchase tokens or subscribe to participate then, the system is not inclusive for individuals. Instead, if the system allows participants to be rewarded for working on it, such as Bitcoin allows miners to earn BTC, then it has an actual value.
Decentralization means to implement systems that was able to properly balance reward payouts, to all participants, in different ways. If atomic swaps are effective, there is no clear reason why there would not be middle man charging low fees and competing in order to convert some virtual currencies one into another.
For example, if it is easy to convert different forms of money into another, why wouldn’t then change to virtual currencies? The trust generated in a system is backed both by the number of active users in a network and by the internal ledger security.
Currently, Bitcoin has proven to be the most secure system out there so as to store money. And in the future it may just become the cheapest and most secure way to transfer funds and save money.
It is also very important for projects to keep in mind that all what they are able to give to people using the platform is positive. With an increase number of individuals use Bitcoin, the price will eventually grow in the future. It is very simple. Why? Because the supply is very limited and there will be more individuals entering the market and praising Bitcoin, the price will just simply grow.
There are no examples of assets that grew in the number of users without an effect in the price.
But the situation can be different. Bitcoin may also disappear and be worth zero. In this case, we will all have to use fiat currencies as we have been doing until recently.