Bitcoin Bounces as Gold Continues its June Downtrend of Nearly 8%
For bitcoin and crypto, regulation is the “single biggest driver of the bull market,” with fundamentals remaining “very strong” and retail investors still interested.
- After going above $36,600 on Tuesday, today, the price of Bitcoin is keeping around $35,000 but still trading sideways and in the $30k-$40k range.
- The next level to watch now is the 50-day moving average which is currently sitting just above $38,000.
- A meaningful break above it could see us rally toward $40k.
According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, Bitcoin is bouncing because of regulatory clarity. He said in an interview with Bloomberg,
“I think crypto investors realize that the path to a bigger crypto future lies through institutional adoption and the pathway to institutional adoption lies through regulatory clarity.”
Regulation is the “single biggest driver of the bull market,” said Hougan.
Open interest on the CME futures still sits at a yearly low, though. With the declining basis hedge, as funding rates go negative, funds are now unwinding their short positions as cash-and-carry trades are no longer lucrative.
Futures premium on CME, however, is on the rise after trading in a slight backwardation to a small contango. The footprint of Bitcoin futures on CME in the cryptocurrency’s price discovery, meanwhile, is growing. Paul Barroso, CEO of crypto trading platform Atani said,
“Although we might be in for a few choppy months ahead, we remain long-term very bullish in the sector and have no doubt that the market will recover quicker than most expect.”
“Fundamentals remain very strong.”
Back to Bitcoin
Interestingly, the latest surge in Bitcoin’s price came as gold fell to nearly $1,750 per ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal is down by nearly 8% this month. Ever since this year, Bitcoin and gold prices have been moving in opposite directions as the cryptocurrency gains traction as digital gold.
According to market participants, bullion’s lack of price discovery could be because of Bitcoin, which is preferred by the younger generation, with the older generation also starting to warm up to it some amidst the heightened inflation.
— Charlie Morris (@AtlasPulse) June 29, 2021
At BTIG, strategists including Julian Emanuel and Michael Chu reiterated their year-end price target of $50,000 per BTC and $5k per Ether. ETH 1.57% Ethereum / USD ETHUSD $ 2,351.93
$36.931.57% Volume 18.93 b Change $36.93 Open $2,351.93 Circulating 116.9 m Market Cap 274.94 b 19 h Altcoins, Not Bitcoin, Drives the Latest 'Massive' Surge in Crypto Adoption: Report 21 h Bitcoin Chills Around $40k as USD Slides After Fed Says It Has A Ways to Go Before Tapering Ends; GDP Rises Slightly, Better than Q1 21 h Paypal Reports “Strong Adoption & Trading Of Crypto” In Q2; Currently Working On Allowing Transfers To Third-party Wallets
In a note last week, they wrote that they would “take advantage of the present weakness” as the rationale for a 1%-to-3% portfolio allocation toward crypto-assets “is stronger than ever,” citing the “transformational power of blockchain” and “a store of value in an increasingly uncertain and inflation-prone world.”
Retail Investors Remain Interested
With greens all around as most cryptocurrencies climb higher, it is giving positive signals. But according to trader DonAlt, “Ethereum and altcoin-led bounces are riskier than Bitcoin-led bounces.”
This is because Bitcoin remains the premier ‘safe haven’ asset, and a healthy market is somewhat contingent on the leading cryptocurrency performing well. Once Bitcoin pumps, then capital flows down from BTC to “riskier” assets, i.e., altcoins.
Strong altcoins and weak Bitcoins actually show “very frothy condition” in the market made up of retail speculation. This was what happened in 2018, where “altcoins kept us plebs entertained while Bitcoin pulled the rug.”
According to Joel Edgerton, chief operating officer of bitFlyer USA, retail investors still remain interested with buying volume representing roughly 70% of total retail volume on his platform last week, and more than 90% of transactions were buy orders.
While Google searches for the terms related to cryptocurrency are seeing a decline, the year-over-year growth is still strong. Edgerton is also seeing an influx of new customers creating bitFlyer accounts.
“This behavior is in-line with conversations with our customers, who see Bitcoin as a long-term investment rather than just short-term speculation.”
“While this volatility may be too much for many, those who understand the fundamentals and long-term value of Bitcoin see it as a great opportunity.”