Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), And Ripple (XRP) Analysis: Market Recovers After Overnight Drop
Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast
1 BTC/USD =$23,455.7445 change ~ -1.90%
From last Tuesday when the price of Bitcoin came down to $9833 at its lowest point we have seen an increase of 30% measured to the highest point the price has been today which is at $12814. The price is currently being traded at $12348 and even spiked further down to $12119 at its lowest point today.
Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Bitcoin came up above the ascending trendline zone which served as resistance on the way up and has retested it on today's spike to the downside and found support there which indicates that the trendline zone is still serving as a significant pivot point. The price came down last Tuesday in a three-wave manner after which a five-wave increase has been seen forming a lower high with the price going below the ascending range and the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
As the price found support around the descending resistance level it started increasing again. I believed that the price is going to retest the upper ascending level before continuing to move to the downside again as the descending channel which started forming form 28th of June looked like it could be the 2nd wave out of the higher degree correction. But as the price increased with strong bullish momentum above the ascending range we could be seeing another ABC correction to the upside which would be the wave X out of the mentioned higher degree correction.
Another possibility would be that the ABC to the downside which ended last Tuesday was the end of the correction with the 30% increase seen after being the start of the next impulsive move to the upside, but I don't believe that's likely because according to my count the 5th wave of the Minor count ended on the yearly high at $13740.
As the price is in an upward trajectory in the upcoming period I would be expecting an interaction with the 0.618 Fib level or a retest of the yearly high before another downfall potentially below the 0.382 Fib or slightly above it, to around the vicinity of the last Tuesday's low.
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Ripple (XRP) Forecast
1 XRP/USD =$0.2464 change ~ 2.46%
From Friday's low at $0.37812 the price of Ripple has increased by 7.71% measured to its highest point today which was at $0.4072 but fell down to $0.39591 where it's currently being traded.
Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Ripple came above the ascending trendline which was the unconfirmed support from the symmetrical triangle which started forming from the 23rd of May and above the 0.618 Fib level which now serves as support as it was retested after a breakout. The price came up today to the vicinity of the breakout spike and got rejected by the resistance found there but found support at the ascending trendline.
A further increase would be expected for interaction with the 0.786 Fib level as we are most likely seeing a three wave correction to the upside which is set to end on a lower high compared to the one which ended slightly above the 0.786 Fibonacci level on the 30th of June. As we've seen the completion of the five-wave impulse as an interaction with the 1.272 Fib level and an ABC to the downside this structure is most likely the past of the same correction of a higher degree and would, in that case, be its 2nd wave which is why after an interaction with the 0.786 level I would be expecting another downfall to the downside at around the intersection of the lower confirmed ascending trendline and the 0.382 level.
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Litecoin (LTC) Forecast
1 LTC/USD =$98.6877 change ~ -1.97%
In the last 24 hours, the price of Litecoin has increased from $120.265 which was the lower resistance level from the horizontal range in which the price is consolidating from the 5th of July above the significant horizontal level at $122.32 but hasn't managed to stay above and fell in a sharp manner below the $120.265 level and is now retesting it.
On the hourly chart, we can see that the price action from the 4th of July formed a cup and handle pattern with today's decrease being the handle. Prior to the formation of the cup and handle we have seen a three-wave increase which is most likely the second correctional structure from the higher degree correction in which case the currently seen cup and handle would be its prolongation.
As the price hasn't caught enough momentum for a breakout above the median point of the resistance area a retracement has been seen in a five-wave manner but it might not have ended which is why we could see another decrease to around $119 level which is the median point of the horizontal range. After a small corrective upside move for another retest of the handles upper outline level, I would be expecting a breakout to the downside, but if the price manages to hold above $118 we could see a fakeout before another upturn above $122.32.
Prior to the formation of the ABC to the upside and the cup and handle we've seen a five-wave decrease in an impulsive manner which ended as a retest of the prior low level at $114.32. This level might again be retested on the expected downfall but we could see further decrease below it to the next significant horizontal level at around $109 if this whole structure was the 2nd wave out of the higher degree correctional structure.
This would be the Z wave of the complex correction count and would mark the completion of the correction which started on the 12th of June when the price of Litecoin reached $142.737 which was it's yearly high. After its completion, I would be expecting either a trend continuation to the upside or some correctional upside movement which could exceed the yearly high and will be assessed by the seen momentum.
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Crypto Market Overview:
The recovery continues but the increase seen is still considered to be corrective in nature. Further recovery would be expected before another downturn as the prices are set to reach their next significant resistance point shortly.