Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trading Analysis: Hash Rate Drop, Post-Coinbase Listing, and Rumors
BTCUSD closed the weekly session on April 25 at $49,128 in a long black body close, down 12% for the week. While bearish on the face of it, the price critically closed above the key Fibonacci level at roughly $47,000 after testing it towards the end of the week.
Multiple causes were bandied about as to what may have caused the bearish price action since last weekend, including post-Coinbase listing bull exhaustion, a 20% hash rate drop caused by a power blackout in China’s Xinjiang province, and unfounded rumors of a US Treasury crackdown on financial institutions for money laundering using cryptocurrencies.
The hash rate drop is arguably the least plausible factor given that BTCUSD has previously rallied aggressively through such spells where a significant portion of the network’s hash rate has gone offline, most recently last October when a similar 20% hash rate drop coincided with BTCUSD surging to break above a key resistance level.
Then, just as BTCUSD seemed to be establishing support at $54,000, reports of a proposed draconian hike in capital gains tax rates up to 43% for millionaire investors by the Biden administration caused the pair to break down further below the primary trend line dating back to December.
While the early hours on Monday evinced promise of a reversal, the primary trend line and significant RSI level of 44 (charted below) must be overcome first by daily close before this bullish reversal picks up steam.
The potential for a reversal materialized late Sunday night after firm support was established by way of an immediate bounce at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Notice in the chart below the significance of each of these levels even in past price action. The price always tends to move in these universal ratios.
A dragonfly doji close, bullish RSI divergence, and DI convergence in the 4-hour chart further affirmed that a bottom was found for this corrective wave. Whether this reversal is sustained depends on breaking back above the primary trend line by the daily close.
Key short-term support levels are $52,500 and $51,000. Key resistance levels are $54,600 and $56,000.