Bitcoin Capitulation to Push Volatility Even Lower, But OI on Binance Continues to Rise Sharply
Nothing exciting is happening with Bitcoin price as the cryptocurrency continues to be boring, trading in the $30k and $40k range.
Bitcoin is having a tough time breaking out of this range or even above the 50-day moving average. While the downward slope gives the appearance that $20k support might get a retest but that may not be so easy to reach as there are a lot of bids stacked under $30k.
Moreover, “a price crash right now probably wouldn't be a bad thing at all” because of many nervous people sitting on coins right now that they're unsure of, and a break below will push them out and transfer the coins from weak to strong hands, wrote analyst Mati Greenspan in his daily newsletter Quantum Economics.
“In technical terms, this is known as capitulation, a classic example of which occurred for bitcoin in late 2018, marking the end of crypto winter and paving way for the 2019 bull run,”For now, volume and volatility are coming off with QCP Capital expecting the implied volatility to “move decisively toward our target range of 55-65%.”
— skew (@skewdotcom) July 16, 2021
As Bitcoin remains around $31,000, Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners, is back with his bearish call, which recently went lower than the previous $20k calls to sub $10k.
Now he is back to remind that it is coming sooner as price testing $30k support again and again.
“A technician's rule to remember with Bitcoin: “Every time a support level is tested, it becomes weaker.” That would mean support for $30,000 may soon fail,” tweeted Minerd.
However, Minerd’s bearish calls for Bitcoin aren't really worth any attention as he has been bearish ever since January this year, the month SEC approved Guggenheim for buying Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
“Stocks down, credit spreads widening, Treasurys rallying, commodities soft or falling. Consumer sentiment lowest since February 2021. Starting to feel like market participants are losing faith in growth expectations. May be time to prepare for a risk-off summer,” he said in a separate tweet.
people are shocked prices are down despite companies, adoption, inflows etc. all on the up
simple abstraction from the above is think more purely in the time dimension, the market was a red hot ball for X months, now for Y months it could be cool despite any fundamentals
— Roshun Patel (@roshunpatel) July 15, 2021
Interestingly, amidst the ongoing weak price action, open interest continues to rise sharply.
On June 22nd, the OI on leading derivatives exchange Binance was at its all-time high of 57,000 BTC, and in just three weeks and a half, it has soared more than 63% to 93,100 BTC, as per Bybt.
At the time, last month, trader CL of eGirl Capital described it as the “unprecedented pace of open interest growth on Binance.”
As for Ether, less than two weeks back, OI on Binance was 534.16k ETH which has now reached 726.33k ETH, representing an increase of 36%.
Overall in USD terms, the total OI on Bitcoin futures is $11.83 billion, up from $10.6 billion on June 26 but way off of $27.68 billion on April 13. For Ether futures, the total OI is $5.23 billion, up from $4.43 billion on June 26 but down from the $11.6 billion peak on May 10.