Bitcoin Collapsing to Zero or Bitcoin at $1 Million and Everything in Between: How Did 2018 Predictions Pan Out?
The sentiments around cryptocurrencies have always been mixed. There are very few who can view it objectively. Either people are severely against the concept or they are diehard fanboys. So, it is obvious that the predictions made by these so-called experts will be also extreme.
People Who Got Their Predictions Wrong
Bitcoin At $25K: Tom Lee
Financial market research firm Fundstrat’s Tom Lee was of an opinion that Bitcoin (BTC) could trade at anywhere from $22,000 to $25,000 by the year’s end. Lee, a notorious Bitcoin bull, is famous for his prediction in January that Bitcoin would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018, later saying in March it would reach a staggering $91,000 by 2020. He later said that he estimates that Bitcoin would reach an end-year estimate of $15,000.
There Will Be Increased Interest Of Institutions In Crypto: Mike Novogratz
Even though the ex-Goldman Sachs partner and founder of crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz’s prediction of Bitcoin’s price to stay in the range of $3,000 and $6,000 will be right, he was very wrong about his other prediction. He had earlier predicted that there will be a renews interests of established institutions in cryptocurrencies. Novogratz predicted that financial institutions will transition from “investing in cryptocurrency funds to investing in cryptocurrencies proper in the first quarter of next year.”
Bitcoin Will Reach $1.5K: Bloomberg
Most mainstream media financial experts thought that when Bitcoin broke the $6,000 support level there would be no other support till $1,500-$2,0000. Bloomberg was notoriously pushing the same narrative with no substance to mark the claims. This seems highly unlikely now.
Blockchain Technology Will Become Obsolete: George Friedman
On June 15th geopolitical analyst George Friedman had told CNBC that blockchain will become obsolete. Friedman is a founder of Geopolitical Futures, an online publication dedicated to predicting the future course of international affairs, and author of “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century.” He told CNBC that he has “never known any encryption technology not to be broken,” and that he doubts “between Russia, China, U.S. intelligence services” that blockchain cannot be decrypted. However, looking at the penetration of blockchain in the financial markets, it is safe to say that he was very wrong.
People Who Got Their Predictions Right
Hardforks For BTC And BCH: Ari Paul
Co-founder of the large-scale cryptocurrency hedge fund Block Tower Ari Paul made predictions that were so accurate that it is scary. At the beginning of 2018, he had made a few predictions on Twitter. One of them was:
“Both BTC and BCH will continue to hard fork and >10% of the value of each (if held today) will reside in new offshoots.”
BTC To Fall To $4,000: Todd Gordon
Todd Gordon from TradingAnalysis.com had predicted the drop of bitcoin to $4,000. Gordon suggested that BTC will drop below $5,000, subsequently hitting $10,000 by the end of the year, citing significant market volatility to be the main reason. When asked to explain his estimates, Gordon cited a “beautiful uptrend,” and called the recent correction down from $19,000 “inconsequential” given the gains in BTC price since 2015. Some parts of his predictions have come true. The others, only time will tell.
No Bitcoin ETF In 2018: Reggie Brown
A senior managing director and head of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Reggie Brown has said that no ETFs will be approved anytime soon. Speaking at Georgetown University's Financial Markets Quality Conference in Washington D.C., Browne reportedly said that BTC ETFs will be approved only after the development of a strong regulatory framework in the industry. He said: “Definitely possible could be 20 years from now or it could be tomorrow. Don’t hold your breath. The SEC took a long time to [establish] Finhub. It might take even longer to approve an exchange-traded product.”