Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin Analysis: After A Sharp Price Drop Overnight, In Slight Recovery


BTC/USD Forecast

1 BTC/USD =$23,455.7445 change ~ -1.90%

Coin Market Cap

$452.23 Billion

24 Hour Volume

$13.19 Billion

24 Hour VWAP

$23.8 K

24 Hour Change

$-445.47

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From yesterday's open at $11989 which was also the highest price has been we have seen a decrease of 10% as the price came down to $10784 at its lowest point today. Currently, the price is being traded at $11238 and is in an upward trajectory. On the hourly chart, we can see that a breakout to the downside occurred below the ascending support levels and the 0.5 Fibonacci level after yesterday's rejection at the minor horizontal level slightly below the prior high. The price briefly entered the territory of the descending channel but immediately came up above and is currently stuck inside a cluster between significant support/resistance levels.

The price is below 0.5 Fib level but the bullish momentum caught could push the price slightly higher, potentially for a retest of the upper ascending trendline which was broken today on the way down. If the price gets rejected there and doesn't exceed the minor horizontal resistance level on the yesterday's open we could expect to see further downside for the price of Bitcoin as it would imply that bullish momentum seen from Tuesday until yesterday's open has been stopped out by the sellers who would then take control.

As we have seen the completion of the five-wave impulse to the upside it was most likely the C wave from the ABC correction which is the second wave from the higher degree correction, according to my count. This is likely because after the first impulsive move to the downside from $13740 to $10790 we have seen another five-wave move of a lower degree which made a price recovery to $12360. If this were to be the second wave it should have developed in a three-wave manner, but as it developed in a five-wave I think it was the A wave of a lower degree correction.

There could be a possibility that the three-wave correction ended on the 2nd of July in which case the five-wave impulse that followed till yesterday's open would be the first wave off of the next five-wave increase to the upside but considering what's has been said I don't believe that's likely.

The most significant area for the ending point of the expected decrease would be at around $8550-8500 where some of the major and minor trendlines and support levels intersect which is why I would be expecting a downfall to that area in the upcoming period.

LTC/USD Forecast

1 LTC/USD =$98.6877 change ~ -1.97%

Coin Market Cap

$7.12 Billion

24 Hour Volume

$227.81 Million

24 Hour VWAP

$100

24 Hour Change

$-1.95

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Yesterday the price of Litecoin has been increasing until reaching $125.65 when another impulsive move to the downside occurred of around 5.93% with the price coming to $118.218 at its lowest point today. Since then a minor recovery has been made with the price currently being traded at $120.3 has started experiencing resistance at the prior lower degree high which serves as a resistance level. On the hourly chart, you can see that the price came below $122.35 horizontal level which is considered to be the median level of the resistance zone in which the price of Litecoin has been since 7th of June when the impulsive move the upside pushed the price slightly above its upper level at $137. After the completion of this impulsive move to the upside, we've seen a complex structure at first sideways after which an impulsive move the downside has seen of around 18% but an immediate recovery of an almost equal amount occurred but ended below the upper resistance level.

After this spiked to the upside, another impulsive five-wave move has been seen but the price made a slightly higher low after which an upside move lead the price for a retest of the median point. This retest ended as rejection with the price moving below the minor ascending support level made from the 2nd of July which is why I think we are now going to see another move to the downside of an equal amount as the one prior to the corrective ABC increase.

If this occurs the price would set to go below $109 horizontal level which would mean that it has entered the lower range, below the significant horizontal area and would indicate potential further lows for the price of Litecoin, as on a higher time-scale it could be interpreted as a retest of the broken support zone on the 10th of June 2018.

This whole move after the completion of the upward impulse wave could be a five-wave complex correction in which case the next expected decrease would be its ending wave, but if we are seeing a higher degree correction this could only be its first wave.

ETH/USD Forecast

1 ETH/USD =$1,637.5106 change ~ -2.08%

Coin Market Cap

$200.39 Billion

24 Hour Volume

$4.37 Billion

24 Hour VWAP

$1.67 K

24 Hour Change

$-34.07

The price of Ethereum has decreased by 7.43% from yesterday’s high at $303.11 as it came down today to $280.59 at its lowest point but is currently being traded at around $293.4 as a minor recovery has been made.

Click to see the full-size image

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Ethereum fell back inside the territory of the descending triangle which has been by the price action from the 27th of June. The price came back above it, retesting its resistance level for support and as the support was present an upside move has been seen but the price is still lower compared to the previous high which is why nothing has been changed with the projection so far.

I am still considering this as the start of another downside move with today’s small recovery most likely being the corrective wave 2 of the starting impulse to the downside. I would be expecting a downfall to $230 area where the 0.382 Fib level is.

Conclusion

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a decrease and a minor recovery afterward which are most likely the first two waves out of the starting five-wave impulse to the downside. If the prices start moving to the upside further and exceed their prior high’s this possibility would look less likely, but if the price shortly starts depreciating it would most likely mean that we are seeing further lows in the upcoming period.

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