Bitcoin Fair Value Less than $7,000 as per “Dire” On-Chain Stats
The first half of June hasn’t been a good one for bitcoin. Opening the month around $9,500 to see a pump and dump of more than a thousand dollars, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has been slowly making its way downwards that had it falling below $9,000.
Currently, BTC/USD is trading around $9,100, down 3.08% while managing $1.6 billion in real volume. Popular stablecoin USDT meanwhile is recording over $2.1 billion in volume in the past 24 hours.
These losses came despite the Federal Reserve supporting prolonged quantitative easing and keeping the interest rates unchanged at 0% to at least 2022.
— Hope Freiheit 🥃 (@hope_freiheit) June 14, 2020
“The USD is sitting on a major support line and will likely start a big move down given the recent Fed statement supporting prolonged QE. This is confirmed by strength in commodities and commodity-related assets. BTC setting up for a breakout is another confirmation,” tweeted Koyfin.
However, the US stock market is recording losses which could be because of the coronavirus cases surpassing 2.1 million in the country and 117,858 people losing their lives to it. Also, the Fed has warned of an ‘extraordinarily uncertain’ path to recovery.
Following stocks, bitcoin is also on the downslide. “I think it’s definitely part of the broader sell-off that we also saw in equities last week,” said Vijay Ayyar, head of business development with crypto exchange Luno.
“We tapped liquidity at the $10,000 level and are now coming back down. I expect $8,500 to hold, but if not we’re looking at $7,700 and then $7,100.”
A larger correction potentially at hand
Bitcoin exchange inflows are also increasing amidst this drop in price. This could mean people are looking to sell their BTC at higher prices in anticipation of a drop in price, although in the long term, exchange wallets are decreasing.
With price breaking down, it needs to be seen if miners will hold onto their inventory which they have already been selling more than they have been mining, as per MRI.
“Corn is hanging onto support by a bees dick here, my stop below the wick, if it loses that, it might get ugly and will have to go flat and re-evaluate,” said market analyst Benjamin Blunts.
Trader Altcoin Psycho sees the flagship cryptocurrency going even lower. We might even get to see $8,000 yet again.
Same energy, opposite sides of market structure.
I'm short term bearish, expecting us to fall under $9k. Looks like I'm counter trading most of twitter here.
Regardless of direction bias, this is not the place to play high leverage or tight stops. pic.twitter.com/OvZJnvEBze
— Altcoin Psycho (@AltcoinPsycho) June 14, 2020
Bitcoin has first support present at $9,200 and second level of support at just above $8,800. If the both are lost, trader Credible Crypto says, “a larger correction potentially at hand.”
It looks like a bottom it smells like the bottom, so it's probably gonna be the top for the next month or so
— ₿itBit (@BitBitCrypto) June 15, 2020
On top of this, on-chain stats are not looking good either. According to Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree, the fair value of Bitcoin currently is less than $7,000. He said,
“Bitcoin on chain stats are dire. 1 week network velocity down to 454%, 5wk 556%. Tx value down, av tx size down, fees down, MRI shot to pieces. Why the lack of interest? Can’t see price holding up. Fair value <$7k.”
But, with BitMEX co-founder and CEO Arthur Hayes taken to tweet, “Spoos and bitcoin tanking at the same time. What a shame, take that JPOW wampum and put it to good use,” Crypto Twitter believes it to be a “temporary bottom signal.”
Moreover, bitcoin whales are seeing this as an opportunity to buy the dip. In the past year, the number of bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC has increased by nearly 9%. Bitcoin whales started accumulating in 2020, with a prominent spike in this recorded after the March sell-off.
Over 3 million bitcoin addresses are now holding more than 950 BTC.