Bitcoin has 56% Chance of Seeing Positive Returns in October: BTC/USD Analysis
- In 2019, for the first five months, Bitcoin price moved in the upward direction, hitting 2019 high at around $13,900.
- But for the past three months, the Bitcoin price has been on the downslide as we moved from the high of $13,900 to around $7,755 at the end of September.
What's the Odds of BTC's Value Seeing a Positive Rise?
However, this 40% drop has been expected after the surge of more than 200 percent. Moreover, historically, Q3 has been bad for the leading cryptocurrency. Though Q4 has been the best performing for bitcoin, as previously reported, October tends to end up being a red month if Sept. saw BTC price falling.
Now, according to analyst Willy Woo’s Bitcoin Seasonality chart, historically, October has been profitable 56% of the time. So, though it’s 50-50 chance of a negative movement, it leans a bit towards positive return in Oct.
As can be seen in the chart, the profitability of Bitcoin starts increasing in Oct. after tumbling down in Sept. So, it is possible we might bottom out and end this month on a positive note.
Even in the stock market, Sept. tends to be the month with the highest losses. It has been attributed to the September Effect where investors return from summer vacation to lock in gains and tax losses before the end of the year and get ready for Oct. bump-up.
Currently, BTC is trading at $8,377 with 24 hours gains of 0.62 percent, as per Coincodex. Trading volume meanwhile has nosedived to $120 million, as per Messari.
The Most Profitable Month
Based on a decade long history of the flagship cryptocurrency, March is the weakest month for Bitcoin, profitable only 20% of the time.
However, it’s May that has the strongest profitability percentage, seeing positive price movement 80% of the time. Next year, the month would mark the Bitcoin reward halving event.
Currently, Bitcoin, he said is in a short-term correction of price.
Though Bitcoin halving has been the driving factor for each of BTC bull run, he advised miners to have a long-term perspective because, “If bitcoin’s price remains unchanged after halving, the efficiency of existing equipment must be improved to balance efficiency and computing power.”
Bitcoin Maintains $8,300 Support level; Is a Bull Run Around the Corner?
Bitcoin’s price movement in the past few weeks has been struggling below the $9,000 mark despite speculations earlier in the year that the digital asset would maintain the above $10,000 mark. At the moment, the price is ranging between $7,800 and $8,800 which ultimately affects the total crypto market cap given its dominance.
Most sentiments from technical analysts within the cryptocurrency market lean towards a critical support level for Bitcoin. Insights from experienced traders point out that BTC’s current price is an important range that could precede a strong bull or could see the coin sink further down towards the $7,000 mark.
some similarity b/t daily chart in Q1 2019 to 4h chart now
conclusion of consolidation may again align w/CME contract rollover pic.twitter.com/q7rW8g5qcq
— Josh Olszewicz (@CarpeNoctom) October 11, 2019
As of press date, Bitcoin is trading at $8,300 with a 66% market dominance. The digital currency had tried to break the current short term resistance level but the bulls did not push the price past $8,900. This was instead followed by a drop below the $8,500 level. Bitcoin’s short term price behaviour is currently unpredictable given its volatile and defying price history. However, some prominent analysts have noted similar patterns with those at the beginning of 2019, which was followed by a strong Bitcoin surge.
The current analysis however indicate that Bitcoin’s price should consolidate between the $8,300 and $8,400 mark if it’s to repeat a similar pattern. A drop further in price would in turn indicate the probability of a more bearish market that could see BTC slide back to the lows experienced in 2018.
$BTC daily update:
Took out the range high.
Even if I take any HTF bias out of the analysis that makes me expect the range low to be hit.
The fact that this range developed after a massive breakdown is just a bonus.
For me to turn bullish we'd have to trade back above 9.5k. pic.twitter.com/QysoaPGTgy
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) October 12, 2019
One popular crypto analyst that goes by DonAlt on twitter shows through T.A that BTC will drop to the $7,000 level before reverting to an upward trend. The main focus still remains on the near term price behavior as most analysts try to predict the future of cryptocurrency markets in 2020!