Bitcoin Having Almost No Correlation to Gold Since Late 2020
Compared to the $1 trillion crypto asset’s 85% YTD gains, the bullion is down -11.19% in 2021 so far. As for month-to-date, gold prices are again down 3%, while BTC is up nearly 20%.
It’s been nearly six months that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been on a downtrend. Currently, this correlation is near 0, which points to no correlation at all.
This made sense given that ever since hitting a new all-time high above $2,000, the prices of precious metal have been going down, hitting a nine-month low on Monday to $1,675 before making some recovery to $1,700 in tandem with all the other assets.
Based on BTC/GOLD 60d Spearman Correlation, “Bitcoin has had almost basically no correlation to Gold since late 2020,” noted Coin Metrics.
Compared to the $1 trillion crypto asset’s 85% YTD gains, the bullion is down -11.19% in 2021 so far. Even month-to-date, the spot gold prices are down 3%, while BTC is up nearly 20%.
Stock markets made a recovery on Monday on the back of a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan winning US senate approval on Saturday, only to end up lower. Tech-heavy Nasdaq is also selling off, now down 10.5% from Feb. 12 high of 14,095.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the package would fuel a “very strong” U.S. recovery, and as spending increases, she does not expect the economy to run too hot either.
However, investors are back to bracing themselves for another bout of sell-off in US Treasuries as a trio of large government debt auctions this week. “Investors will remain on pins and needles until the auctions are behind us,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities.
This could present a danger for all risky assets, including Bitcoin, as we have seen over the last couple of weeks.
Rising treasury yields are helping the US dollar strengthen, which fell to nearly 89 level earlier this year, a level not seen since April 2018. But since late February, the greenback has been climbing, going to 92.5 today before sliding to 92.
This is why the stock market and Bitcoin have been enjoying the gains finally, with BTC going above $54,000.
But in the near term, the macro presents a challenge in the form of rising yields and dollars. Additionally, March hasn’t been a bullish month for Bitcoin historically, which combined with 100k Bitcoin options outstanding for the March expiry points to continued volatility.