Bitcoin Historical Charts Indicate Leading Crypto has Strong Quarter-4s in Prior Years
Bitcoin May Surge in Last Quarter of 2018
There’s no denying that 2018 has been one of the worst year for cryptocurrencies since the market has been bearish for quite an extended period of time. Bitcoin specifically has seen a massive drop from its all-time high of $20,000 USD registered in late 2017. However, a seasonality chart seems to show that the cryptocurrency may pick in the last quarter of 2018.
According to MarketWatch, Bitcoin has been seen to surge in the last quarters of each year since 2013 except in Q4 2014. The chart from Element Digital Asset Management shows that towards the end of September, Bitcoin has a tendency to increase in value until the end of a particular year. So predictable is the trend that in some three years, it only dropped for 14 days combined.
Is the Seasonal Chart Reliable?
Well, majority of the cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin are in a very early stage of development and usage. That said, using these charts over such a short period may show that the sample maybe small to give an adequate trend. According to the Element’s portfolio executive, Thejas Nelva, crypto markets are mostly based on sentiments rather than fundamental values. To him, it’s not totally irrational to think there’s some seasonality that exists with these markets.
Tom Lee who is a Bitcoin bull also affirmed that the seasonality of most altcoin holders may see a surge in the crypto prices. In a note to his clients, Lee stated that some events such as an overhang of SEC actions and the events surrounding the Venezuelan Petro may provide an open window for a rally in the altcoin market.
Lee stands by his prediction of a price of $25,000 by end of 2018 which implies that the coin has to rise with over 300% which is quite possible considering last year it made incredible gains of over 200%. However, crypto investors are urged to be cautious since these predictions are purely coincidental and may not hold for such a young market. The CEO of Binance believes that a 1000x price gain is quite possible which contradicts Buterin’s view that there wouldn’t be such rapid growth in crypto.