Bitcoin: Ignition Of A New Bull Rally Or Violent Reversal Down?
- Oil prices fall to a 20-year low of $11 a barrel
- Bitcoin and stock market in the mix but Amazon flying, while downward pressure on gold
- $8,000 needs to be broken and hold for a strong move upwards, $6,300 still expected
After climbing to nearly $7,300 over the weekend, Bitcoin is yet again shedding those gains falling below $7,000 on Monday. At the time of writing, BTC/USD has been trading just above $7k.
These losses are recorded as the price of the main US benchmark crude oil plummeted to as low as a mere $11 a barrel on Monday, a level not seen in about two decades. However, this unusual volatility is expected to be because investors have little interest in buying the futures contract expiring on Tuesday. June’s futures contract was trading higher at about $23 a barrel.
Still, oil buyers are few with global oil consumption expected to be a third lower in April because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Amazon has never been more powerful
The stock market is also now mixed as the US nears a deal for more support packages for small businesses. However, Amazon has emerged as a winner during the market turmoil as the company capitalizes on people in lockdown and unable to shop normally.
Amazon stock breaking out to new all-time high puts Nasdaq back in the green for 2020
Will bitcoin also be seen by global investors as a beneficiary of the COVID-19 crisis? pic.twitter.com/R5KtxAtqHF
— skew (@skewdotcom) April 16, 2020
While Amazon is aiming to press to its advantage and dominate, resistance is also heating up. Anti-monopoly activists, immigrant groups, and labor organizations are working together to restrain the company as hundreds of thousands of workers are asked to step up even amidst the fear of health risks.
The company is “working around the clock to get necessary supplies delivered directly to the doorsteps of people who need them” but also firing employees who are speaking out.
“Amazon has never been more powerful, but the consequences of its power have never been more visible,” said Stacy Mitchell, co-director of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance and one of the leaders of the opposition. “It’s laid bare.”
Break and hold of $8,000 crucial
Meanwhile, the price of US Treasury bonds rose, suggesting investors are still shunning risky assets in favor of safe havens. Gold, however, traded slightly lower as the dollar edged higher amidst the growing optimism around coronavirus treatments and easing of global lockdowns. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda said,
“The dollar is continuing to apply downside pressure to the yellow metal and may continue to do so if risk appetite wanes in the face of weak corporate results.”
Investors are currently bracing for weak data from quarterly results of corporations.
4 yrs of a gold bull market, now the media begins to highlight. Retail starting to get “interested”. #covid19 easing/liquidity is only fuel to a pre-existing fire.
“There is no fever like gold fever”.
(Of course, Except BTC fever)
— Bob Loukas (@BobLoukas) April 20, 2020
After four straight green weeks, Bitcoin is looking good but not to analyst Benjamin Blunts, “Seems like everyone over the weekend flipped bull, even the bears i follow flipped bull.” However, with the halving coming up in just over 20 days, there is reason to expect the bullish momentum to build.
“For me, I see a 5 wave decline on hourly with an abc up straight into the 0.618, I'm still short,” said the analyst who is expecting the next move to take us below $6,350 in the next few days.
As for the bullish side, trader Crypto Yoda said, a break of $7,475 could lead to a “strong breakout,” but it would be the break and hold of $8,000 that will be “very bullish and increase chances of a major spike, wiping out Bears and igniting the new rally.”
But again, the pump failure, unable to break the Daily EMA Cluster of $7,600-$7,900, could also lead to a “violent reversal down.”