- Bitcoin has lost 46.7% of its value since hitting 2019 high
- BTC is currently passing from dumb money to smart money as all trades are being matched – on-chain analyst Willy Woo
- Meanwhile, Bitcoin commentator puts a rest to Bitcoin halving being a non-event
In the past six months after hitting the 2019 high at $13,900, Bitcoin has been falling downwards, although we did see many bouts of surges in between. During this period, Bitcoin has lost 46.7% of its value.
According to an on-chain analyst and partner at Adaptive Fund, Willy Woo, Bitcoin is in a bull market and its re-accumulation phase.
With accumulation, Woo clarifies, it means the coin is passing from dumb money to smart money as all trades are being matched. As for the price, it can go up or down during this phase, but prices declining is not distribution.
He notes that “what matters is what happens after this phase that determines distribution from accumulation.”
Are we in a $BTC bear market?
No, we are in the re-accumulation phase of a bull market. pic.twitter.com/OcMyxA4EIY
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 28, 2019
Woo further clarified on his bearish stance last month stating, it was because of difficulty ribbon compression, miner sell-off. Even then, he was short term bearish, expecting more volatility.
Earlier this month, Woo shared that on-chain momentum is crossing into bullish and the bottom is likely in. Also “price action follows on-chain action a few weeks later.”
“Prep for halvening front running here on in,” he said at that time.
Another accumulation observation is made by Su Zhu, CEO, and CIO at Three Arrows Capital who sees BTC jumping above $9,000 before the first month of 2020 ends.
BTC/USDT premiums and price action show clear signs of accumulation and money flow back into risk.
Would not surprise me to see 9K+ before end of Jan.
— Su Zhu (@zhusu) December 28, 2019
Putting a rest to Bitcoin halving being a non-event
Meanwhile, Bitcoin commentator Melik Manukyan says Bitcoin halving being a non-event is just plain wrong. Those people, he said, are missing the point and being “disingenuous” but aren’t fooling anyone.
Bitcoin halving, Manukyan said isn’t “a single [prophetic] moment, but a market cycle,” explaining how to post halving rallies have a lag following the event.
It starts with demand, that is bids being at equilibrium with the currently available supply, which asks, and the flow that are new coins being generated.
Now when Bitcoin halving happens, “Demand instantly begins eating into new coins & eventually depletes them,” he continued.
Demand will then start going after the existing supply, the non-HODL’ed BTC, that is up for sale.
But with halving the supply has also been depleted which means, price begins moving upward. As BTC starts surging, this captures greater market attention creating an FMO and frenzy among people.
In price terms, investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne says the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will dump during the halving but after that, it would test the all-time high of $20,000.
But this isn’t all the hopium, as Milne further points out, “Nearly 70% of all Bitcoin hasn't been moved for over 6 months. Last time that happened was… approaching the 2016 halving.”