Bitcoin is a ‘Safety Trade’ & Current Stability Will Encourage Further ‘Institutional Flow’
For now, Bitcoin is stuck just around $15,000, unable to make it to the next level of $16k. It is possible, for a few weeks, BTC would chop here before it goes further.
Yesterday, BTC dropped to about $14,840 in line with gold’s losses. Mirroring the precious metal shows that “for many people, Bitcoin is a safety trade,” said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.
Meanwhile, the stock market made new all-time highs in response to market certainty over Joe Biden being president-elect and Pfizer’s initial analysis showing that its COVID-19 vaccine is 90% effective.
“Assuming this was indeed the end of the election, the market narrative will start to shift towards other focuses,” noted Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer at Arca. The positive being real progress towards a much needed fiscal-aid package.
Every time Bitcoin has closed above the previous monthly all-time high – a 700% to 1000% uptrend has followed
November could be the first monthly close that we see breaking the previous high and historically that's been a very bullish sign for the crypto market pic.twitter.com/5SBTtE600U
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) November 10, 2020
“With this backdrop, it’s not surprising that so many new investors are flocking to digital assets, as the bull case created by stimulus and an improving economy is similar to that of other risk assets,” said Dorman adding bears caused by deteriorating health and economic malaise would likely have little effect.
Today, we are back around $15,300 but still in red with $3.625 billion in ‘real’ trading volume.
Bitcoin aggregate open interest (OI) is also holding near the recent highs, with the CME just shy of the $1bln mark. OKEx has managed to retain its strong position, with its OI rising to its highest level since early September.
“Despite the choppy price action, the futures term structure remained steep, offering plenty of yield for basis traders,” noted Denis Vinokourov of Bequant.
While high levels of volatility for which Bitcoin and other crypto assets are known for, is missing from the market, “the current stability will likely encourage further institutional flow,” he added.
Ongoing BTC bull market
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV continued holding its positive ratio for the past six months – and bounced off the neutral line yet another time. According to Glassnode, “historically, holding this support level is indicative of an ongoing BTC bull market.”
Moreover, Bitcoin’s Relative Unrealized Profit shows that the total profit of all coins in existence whose price at realization time, which is when they were last moved, was lower than the current price.
Relative to previous tops, this metric's current value is still low, indicating more room for growth in bitcoin's price before we see the next top.
Although the technicals point to BTC being overbought at current levels, the market expects it to march forward with more legendary investors coming in with their bullish bitcoin views — Stanley Druckenmiller and Bill Miller being the new additions.
“Pendulum Swings Favorably Toward $2,000 Gold, $20,000 Bitcoin – Annual average prices are on pace to reach $2,000 an ounce for gold and $20,000 for Bitcoin in 2021. Refreshed bull markets in the quasi-currencies, with improving fundamental and technical underpinnings..,” said Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.