Bitcoin Just Entered into “Peak Outperformance” Period: Says Analyst
- Bitcoin recorded “fourth consecutive lower close for the first time in nearly 2 years”
- Though in green, mid to low $7ks eventually expected: says trader
Last month, Bitcoin lost 13.5% of its value, registered the third red month in a row, marking the end of Q3 on a red note, as expected and historically projected. This has been the 5th worst quarterly performance of Bitcoin since 2012, following the 163.5% increase in BTC value, the 3rd best quarterback of all time, in Q2.
Sept. also marked the lowest BTC daily “adjusted transaction volume” since March at about $2.1 billion.
Before today’s green, Bitcoin also recorded the “fourth consecutive lower close for the first time in nearly 2 years,” notes analyst Rptr45.
These losses corresponded with the highly anticipated Bakkt launch whose performance was “underperforming by even the most modest standards.” The platform managed to trade only $6.5 million in the first week with $1.4 million being the highest volume traded in a day.
“The “herd” has been a disappointment thus far but with TDAmeritrade, Charles Schwab, Etrade all cutting trading to $0 fees BTC isn’t a bad place to turn to get some “spread back.” Which can help with the institutional plumbing,” the analyst said.
Bitcoin Sees Life
Trading volume has also seen a jump from just above $200 million, during the weekend to now at $415 million. BTC dominance, however, has taken a drop below 69% as altcoins surge much higher.
“Great reaction out of the descending channel,” crypto trader and investor Josh Rager responds on the current increase in price.
A daily close above $8,146, Rager says would be a good start for bitcoin that could see the price further climbing to $8,424.
However, he sees BTC pushing down to mid to low $7ks “eventually” given that it is making lower highs.
What to Expect for Q4?
Bitcoin might be down over 42% from 2019 high but it is still up 100% year-to-date. If the year is to end today, Rptr45 wonders aloud, it would be the second “worst” year.
But this also means, the trend is your friend and “don’t try to pick bottoms when we’re still +100% YTD,” advised Rptr45.
Historically, Q4 turned out to be a red one, 3 out of 8 times, including the last year.
Now, with each passing day, we are moving closer to the Bitcoin reward halving in May 2020. If we take a look at the historical performance, BTC’s peak outperformance has been in the 90-240 days prior to the having and we have just entered that period.
The macro-environment meanwhile, he says continues to be supportive of BTC long term but is yet to be seen how it performs in a
“true risk-off environment.”