Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple (XRP) Analysis: Recovery Looks Corrective But May Pullback Further
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Market Update
1 BTC/USD =$23,540.8176 change ~ -1.47%
From yesterday's low at $11130 the price of Bitcoin has recovered by 4.72% as it came up to $11655.5 at its highest point today, around which it is currently being traded.
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Bitcoin came above the 0.382 Fibonacci level but hasn't made an interaction with the 0.5 one before showing signs of weakness. A descending channel started forming but its upper level is still unconfirmed as we are yet to see if the price pulls back as it finds resistance which I think it will.
This descending channel could play out as the B wave correction to the upside but with lower highs and lower lows in which case a breakout above 0.5 won't be seen before another downfall as the C wave should start. Another possibility would be that we see a similar pattern as we did on the X wave in which case the price would find support on a minor pullback and retest the 0.382 Fib level for support and continue increasing from there to the 0.618 Fib level at $12254.
In either way, the recovery seen from yesterday is considered as the B wave from the ABC correction as the 3rd sub-wave from the higher degree correctional count and is why after its completion I would be expecting another downfall.
The price is set to go below 0.268 Fib level as the C wave develops and the ending point of the first ABC correction after the 5th wave out of the Minor count ended might get retested, which is why I've projected my target price for the C wave to be at around $9930, but we could see the price lower if the price is to make a lower low compared to the first correction C wave in which case I wouldn't expect it to go below $9440.
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Ripple (XRP/USD) Market Update
1 XRP/USD =$0.2464 change ~ 2.46%
Yesterday the price of Ripple continued its downfall which started from Tuesday and decreased by another 12.46%, coming from yesterday’s high at $0.36912 to $0.31682 at its lowest point.
From there the price started recovering and came to $0.34945 which is an increase of 10% from yesterday’s low. The price is currently being traded at those levels as significant resistance has been reached and is currently being tested.
On the 15-min chart, you can see that the price of Ripple fell below the significant support area around 0.382 Fib level and found support on the next one at 0.236. The price spiked to the upside as a retest of the broken support for resistance and considering the momentum behind the sell-off I believe that the resistance will be present.
This would cause price rejection and further sideways movement in the horizontal range between the Fib levels as the B wave should now develop from the third ABC correction out of the higher degree corrective count.
The B wave could bring the price of Ripple to the 0.618 Fib level in theory but considering the vicinity of the significant resistance which is being retested, I think that more likely we are to see the price being stuck in a horizontal range.
As the C wave should develop another impulsive decrease would be expected after the completion of the B wave which is a recovery wave, so the price is set to go below the currently found support at the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
The next significant support would be at the $0.29405 but the price could go below the 0 Fib level as the projected length from the A wave implies.
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Litecoin (LTC/USD) Market Update
1 LTC/USD =$99.0095 change ~ -2.05%
From yesterday's low at $94.76 the price of Litecoin increased by 11.74% as it came up to $105.89 at its highest point today around which it is currently being traded. The price is still in an upward trajectory but is showing signs of encountered resistance as the last 15 – min candle left a large wick from its upper side.
An ascending wedge started forming since yesterday's low with the price retesting its resistance level on the mentioned spike and got rejected again, validating the level. The price broke the significant horizontal support level at $109.356 on yesterday's decrease and its retest on the current recovery could be seen, especially considering that the resistance level out of the rising wedge is coming to the intersection of the horizontal level and the descending trendline from the prior decrease.
The rising wedge is a corrective pattern which is why after its completion I would be expecting a downtrend continuation. Wave structure implies that we could be seeing a five-wave decrease from the 4th of July with the cup and handle pattern being its first two waves and the five-wave decrease being it's third. That would bring the rising wedge to being its 4th wave correction after which the last 5th wave should develop.
This five-wave move from the 4th of July is the C wave from the ABC correction which started on the 29th of June and is a continuation of the decrease made after an interaction with the $137 horizontal level. As the C wave ends so will the Z wave of a higher degree from the complex correction count which dates from 12th of June when the 5th wave to the upside of a higher degree ended.
The price target for the expected decrease would be in the $83 zone but this is the furthers I would expect the price to drop as there are other support points above on which the price could end its downward move.
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A minor recovery has been seen today but the recovery looks corrective and with the price reaching some in some cases their significant resistance point I would be expecting a pullback before further prolongation of the recovery in a sideways manner.
After the completion of the recovery which is set to retest the significant broken support levels for resistance, another drop would be anticipated as the correctional structure is to develop fully. This means that I would be expecting lower lows in the upcoming period after this recovery ends.