Bitcoin Looking VERY Bullish Long-Term: BTC Price Prediction Analysis and Forecast
As Bitcoin continues to consolidate, one of the most pressing debates among traders in the crypto space is whether Bitcoin will continue to ascend in price or lose substantial value.
There have been cogent arguments made in favor of either scenario. Thus, this analysis will attempt to ‘settle the score’ by providing an in-depth look at Bitcoin that gives an objective truth on what direction Bitcoin will move after it comes out of its consolidation phase.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
There are a few things worth noting in the chart above that we just posted.
First, let’s be clear in stating that this is the currently look at Bitcoin on the daily resolution.
At the bottom we have the Volume(10).
Just slightly above the price, there is a green dotted line, which represents a major overhead resistance for Bitcoin (should the price make a run in that direction).
Potential Bull Flag Formation
You may have also noticed the two horizontal golden lines that we’ve drawn around the last 13 to 14 candles for Bitcoin on the daily resolution.
This is to outline what we believe to be a bull flag.
What is a Bull Flag?
Let’s do a quick review for those that may not remember what a bull flag is:
Obviously, a breakout from this formation would signal Bitcoin’s potential increase to the overhead resistance at $6,000.
The Presence of a BTC Bull Flag is Not a Guarantee That the Pattern Will Be Fulfilled
As the great trader Thomas Bulkowski once noted in his research, there is no chart pattern that has a 100% strike rate.
Yes, we have positively identified a bull flag, but that is no guarantee that the pattern will fulfill itself. It is still possible that the price can fail to move up out of this pattern.
Therefore, in order to get a better sense of the likelihood of the price breaking above (or below), we’re going to take a look at the metrics that some of the other indicators are providing for us.
Relative Strength Index (14)
The RSI(14) on the daily resolution for Bitcoin is still looking positive. Although, our Zerononcense RSI Filter (custom indicator) is still providing an interim sell signal.
If (and when) our indicator turns a green color again, that could serve as a major buy signal as it would indicate that trend strength is once again rising substantially. Until then, what we’re seeing only allows us to be tentatively bullish.
Golden Cross on the Daily Within Sight
It has been a long time since we’ve talked about ‘golden crosses’ and ‘death crosses’ on the Bitcoin daily resolution.
However, it appears that a golden cross is imminent for Bitcoin on the daily resolution:
In the picture above, the golden line is the EMA-50, and the blue line is the EMA-200.
Once the EMA-50 crosses above the EMA-200, we will officially be able to state that Bitcoin has experienced a golden cross on the daily resolution.
What is a Golden Cross?
A ‘Golden Cross’ is a trading term that describes the crossover of the (E)MA50 > (E)MA 100 or the (E)MA200.
For those that are anticipating a bull market at some point in the future, this is a major sign.
To keep expectations in check though, it is worth noting that the price action of the corresponding stock/asset that experiences the golden cross usually does not see dramatic, positive price action until some time later (for Bitcoin and crypto, in general, it is usually a few weeks later).
However, this ‘signal’ has proven to be extremely reliable in the past.
Last Time Bitcoin Underwent a Golden Cross
As we can see in the picture above, the last time that Bitcoin underwent a golden cross was October 28th-30th, 2015.
Let’s look at the ensuing price action:
Its probably fair to state that anyone that invested on this signal for Bitcoin (on the daily resolution) more than likely was very pleased with the results.
Additional Exponential Moving Averages
In the next picture, we’re going to go ahead and check out the EMA-12 and EMA-26:
As noted in the picture above, the price has already tested the EMA-12 as support at the $5.1k price range and it held pretty well (with a mild bounce) on the daily resolution.
As to whether the price will continue to do so is anyone’s guess. However, it should be noted that both the EMA-12 and EMA-26 will serve as the first and second line of defense if the price action does end up going south.
- EMA-12 = $5,126
- EMA-26 = $4,857
Exponential Moving Averages on the Weekly Resolution
Another view that we need to take into consideration before making any definitive appraisals on Bitcoin (or its EMA values) is the weekly resolution.
Check out the chart below:
On the chart above, the EMAs are as follows:
- EMA-12 = Red Line
- EMA-26 = Green Line
- EMA-50 = Golden Line
As noted in several of our previous price analysis breakdowns for Bitcoin, the overhead resistance that is posed by the EMA-50 on the weekly resolution is very significant.
If Bitcoin is able to make it past the EMA-50 on the weekly resolution, then that would be a major sign of some serious bullish sentiment in the markets for Bitcoin.
However, this has not happened yet and it appears that the EMA-50 has stifled greater price action for Bitcoin over the last 3 periods (3 weeks).
Additional Observation on the Weekly Resolution
As many noticed, there was a significant downtrend resistance that was stifling price breakouts for Bitcoin all throughout 2018. This downtrend resistance essentially spanned from Bitcoin’s all-time high to the most recent major bullish price action that the community has experienced.
We’re going to stay on the weekly resolution here is we recap this:
What’s more noteworthy here is the uptrend support that has been forming for Bitcoin.
It appears that it only spans back to Bitcoin’s low on December 17th, 2018 (ironically, the low was hit exactly a year from Bitcoin’s peak; anyone else noticed that?):
However, if we zoom out, we can see that this underlying support has actually been in existence for considerably longer than that.
Thus, if the price were to decline (instead of breaking out), there is a soft cushion landing that it may fall on (in comparison to some of the drops that were experienced throughout 2018), that will save it from any further substantive losses.
Let’s check out where this support point would catch Bitcoin (should it be necessary):
Assuming the price does not dramatically decline over the next week or so, the picture above indicates that the price will more than likely return to the $4.6k support point (if it comes to that).
Overall, the outlook is bullish to say the least.
A Look at the RSI (14) on the Weekly Resolution
Since we’ve been evaluating the EMAs and support/resistance points on the weekly resolution so much, let’s go ahead and take a look at what the RSI(14) is showing us on the weekly too:
As we can see above, the Zerononcense RSI Filter is clearly showing a buy signal (and has been since the first week of February; February 4th, 2019).
The RSI(14) itself has also produced a buy signal too. For those that do not know, the RSI produces a buy signal when it crosses above 50. Conversely, the RSI produces a sell signal when it crosses below 50 too.
This is yet another major, bullish indicator that Bitcoin bulls should watch out for.
Other Notable Indicators
Zerononcense Double Guppy Channels
Zerononcense Double Guppy Channels is showing us that the price of Bitcoin may continue to consolidate, but it could still pop up.
There are some that have asked how to interpret this indicator, and the easiest suggestion to make is that you should treat it like the Donchian Channels.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Chart Forecast Conclusion
This is a very bullish price analysis on Bitcoin.
We will post an R/R analysis again soon.
Live Bitcoin (BTC) Price:
1 BTC/USD =$48,936.8003 change ~ 5.95%