Bitcoin Market Outlook: A Long Game Looking Bearish in the Short Term
Last week, the price of bitcoin dropped below $9,000 and has been trading under $9,300 throughout the week.
On the weekend, we yet again dropped below $9,000 to $8,630, down 4% while managing $1.94 billion in “real” trading volume.
This dump was reportedly initiated on crypto exchange Coinbase, as per Coin Metrics.
— Jon Geenty (@geenty) May 25, 2020
The market continues to see pullbacks, unable to surpass the important $10,000 level despite the BTC balance on exchanges approaching the lowest levels in more than a year.
It gets started after the market crashed in March and since then the exchange balances continue to drop. This trend is completely opposite of what the market experienced a year ago when the BTC balance on exchanges grew rapidly along with the price.
This could be more investors turning to hodling their BTC, moving their funds to cold storage, and/or controlling the keys themselves — following the ‘not your keys, not your coins’ narrative.
However, according to Arcane Research, a “more likely explanation could be growing activity in the OTC market, moving funds of exchanges.”
$7,500 a possibility
Now, if we fail to retake $9,200, Bitcoin can go below $8,800 and any HTF close here would mean $7,800 is likely to be the next. “Lose that, and I will have to be open to a much larger correction across the board,” said trader Crypto Credible.
However, he is still “only interested in longs” as his line in the sand remains 7,800-$8,000.
This is unlike trader BitDealer’s view to whom bitcoin is not looking good and until we make a higher high, he is more interested in shorting the highs.
Doesnt look too good. Really interesting to me how we haven't taken out any of those highs considering how close price got to them. Reminds me how clean the LHs were following the 20k top. Until we get a HH, good idea to short near the highs/take profit on longs pic.twitter.com/O4umPqE7ZD
— ₿itDealer (@Bitdealer_) May 24, 2020
For trader Altcoin Psycho, this drop in price means $7,500 “looks like a possibility.” Although we have some support on the daily chart if BTC breaches, weekly support is looking weak.
“Bulls need to step in asap or we're going down hard,” he said.
But this is all short-term, in the long-term the picture is looking as good as it always has been with Paul Tudor Jones a “legend trend follower” entering the bitcoin and Goldman hosting a call with Bitcoin which is “in the same title as Gold is significant,” as per Cantering Clark.
Regardless of what happens here to #Bitcoin, you gotta say it is looking good for the big picture.
Most in crypto are new to investing and trading, & time horizons are much smaller than the traditional space, as the immediacy of returns has been the norm.
This is a long game. pic.twitter.com/K7w4l9MHOW
— Cantering Clark (@CanteringClark) May 24, 2020
Meanwhile, Bitcoin correcting and its dominance dropping to 66.6% from 69% on May 7th is good for altcoins with ETH/BTC already rising.