Bitcoin Market State: Investors Holding Steady Instead of Selling Large Volumes like 2018, But Volatility to Remain Under Pressure until Q3 End
The macro-environment also remains in favor of Bitcoin, for now, while the CBDCs aiming for “absolute control” will only drive the cryptocurrency adoption further.
There isn’t much happening with the price of Bitcoin, which continues to remain boring as it trades sideways between $30k-$40k.
As Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound, Guggenheim Investments Chairman Scott Minerd is back with his bearish takes, which could only be seen as his attempts to scoop up cheap coins for himself, although to the public, he is saying that he isn’t in a hurry to buy BTC right now.
Up until now, Minerd was calling for $20,000, but his latest target has now fallen to $10,000.
“When we look at the history of crypto, and we look at where we are, I mean, I really do believe this is probably a crash, and you know a crash would mean we’d be down 70-80% which, let’s just say that’s between 10 and 15 thousand,” he said in an interview with CNBC.
“Put it this way, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to buy Bitcoin, and I don’t see any reason to own it right now.”
“If you’re going to be a speculator, speculate that it’s heading lower.”
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 6, 2021
The biggest bearish driver to BTC right now, according to many market participants, is the big Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) coming in the second half of this month. However, as we reported, GBTC unlocks that have been going on throughout this year have already impacted the Bitcoin price. Now, it would be either neutral or somewhat bullish.
“The fact that the market is so focussed on something like this just shows the lack of real catalysts or market moving events right now,” noted QCP Capital.
This strengthens their conviction that volatility will remain under pressure until mid-late Aug, followed by a rally possibly on the back of the EIP-1559 mainnet implementation and then the larger Q4 Wave 5 selloff on the Fed's taper, it added.
The Grayscale Bitcoin & Ethereum fund premium/discounts to NAV are a good proxy for investor sentiment, by this measure peak bullishness was reached on 21 December and peak bearishness was achieved in 13 May pic.twitter.com/bEuZHZVtWG
— James Butterfill (@jbutterfill) July 6, 2021
Interestingly, Grayscale’s inventory stopped growing around the time Purpose Bitcoin ETF launched in Canada, which garnered huge interest at the time and continues to accumulate Bitcoin in its fund.
The 3iQ CoinShares ETF launched in late April also sees its holdings growing and is similar in size to the Purpose ETF.
Investors are holding steady in during this price volatility. Net new assets in to investment ETPs and Mutual funds suggest that investors have on a net basis been holding rather than selling out in large volumes like they did in 2018 pic.twitter.com/p8dfHs2wOl
— James Butterfill (@jbutterfill) July 8, 2021
In addition, the macro environment is still in Bitcoin’s favor. This week, the European Central Bank raised its inflation goal to 2% and said it may let it overshoot the target for a while.
The ECB said when rates are close to their limit like they are now, the economy will need an “especially forceful” monetary stimulus that could see inflation moderately above target.
“The new formulation removes any possible ambiguity and resolutely conveys that 2% is not a ceiling,” President Christine Lagarde told reporters in a press conference. “What we want to do is to avoid the negative deviation that will entrench inflation expectations.”
This is code for MMT and unlimited brRRrrR https://t.co/F7IxP3h4KG
— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) July 9, 2021
Not to mention, with a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the banks are aiming for increased control. Agustin Carstens, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) chief said,
“We don’t know who’s using a $100 bill today, and we don’t know who’s using a 1,000 peso bill today. The key difference with the CBDC is the central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and also we will have the technology to enforce that.”
This increased surveillance from the top could further lead to a rise in the adoption of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which offer privacy, anonymity, and are censorship-resistant.