Bitcoin Miners Now Unprofitable But An Unbroken S2F Model Says Weak Hands Shaken Out
- Despite the crash, bitcoin stayed well within the S2F model bands
- Bitcoin Electricity Cost at the point where miners start to turn off rigs
- But as miners drop out, the hash rate will go down, the difficulty will adjust, new miners will enter, and new blocks will keep on being produced uninterrupted
Bitcoin price is currently in the red, down 1.04% in the past 24 hours while hovering around $5,300 while the volume remains near $2 billion on top ten exchanges with real volume. Altcoins are yet again following Bitcoin’s lead and seeing a jump much higher than the leading crypto asset.
Bitcoin price might be feeling the green but over 50% drop in the digital asset’s price in two days left the miners “unprofitable.”
“Bitcoin miners now unprofitable. Bitcoin Electricity Cost tested, this is the point where miners start to turn off rigs, b/c the electricity bill is more than 1BTC,” said analyst Charles Edwards.
The production and electrical Cost of bitcoin is a historic floor in its price, explains Edwards and the production cost of mining one bitcoin is currently around $7,900 while electricity cost is $4,745.
Bitcoin will continue to produce blocks uninterrupted
Bitcoin miners might start to turn off their rigs but these conditions don’t last long. With bitcoin holding above $5,000, we would start to see the hash rate drop.
The hash rate of the bitcoin network that reached its all-time high on March 1st at just above 136 Th/s is currently down at 102.8 Th/s but it isn’t anything out of the ordinary yet. These kinds of ups and downs are part of the processing power of the network. With the hash rate and difficulty dropping, the network will continue to generate blocks as usual.
If the current bearish situation of the bitcoin continues into the halving in May 2020, “Some miners will drop out. The hashrate goes down. The difficulty adjusts, making it easier for new miners to enter the market. Bitcoin continues producing blocks uninterrupted,” explained analyst Mati Greenspan.
But does it mean bitcoin price could go lower? Absolutely. Despite losing over 50% of its value in two days and historically the current level is seen as “strong support,” bitcoin could very well go lower “as sustained time here will lead to decreased Hash Rates and likely further price drops. I would not be surprised to see lower prices in coming weeks,” said Edwards.
Good thing, weak hands are shaken out
Scheduled for March 11, 2020, the third block reward halving will cut down the reward from 12.5 bitcoin to 6.25 coins. Just less than two months away in the backdrop of a bleak macro view, price around $5,000, and supply shock incoming, things could get really ugly for miners.
“Overleveraged miners are going to be unbelievably fucked come halving” with “BTC collateral that needs to be liquidated, to the tune of hundreds of millions USD,” said bitcoin whale Joe007.
As we previously reported, this combined with the possibility of a recession means “big miner stress”.
The good thing is despite the crash in bitcoin price, the Stock-to-flow model remains intact with analyst PlanB stating, “Some people think S2F model broke yesterday. Of course it did not. Bitcoin oscillated nicely around model value and stayed well within model bands. The extreme volatility within the model bands shakes out the weak hands. No extreme returns without extreme risk (volatility).”