Bitcoin OG Whales Are No Longer HODLing, Signaling A Flip to Bear Market Incoming
This week, Bitcoin continues to move between $18,000 and $20,000.
The volatility of the leading digital currency remains high, and $20,000 a significant hurdle after climbing 165% this year amidst the ongoing dollar weakness.
While the recent selling “comes as a slight surprise,” indicators point to “near and longer-term upward momentum,” said Ryan Rabaglia, global head of trading at OSL brokerage in Hong Kong.
Just as bitcoin starts rising to its all-time highs, the digital currency takes a drop as investors take off profits. But the increased adoption of Bitcoin as a diversifying asset, from retail institutional investors alike, continues pushing it higher, buying whenever the cryptocurrency dips.
“It's a difficult place right now in terms of just entering into a position,” said Scott Bauer, chief executive officer of Prosper Trading Academy.
He pointed out how we saw significant rejection twice off of all-time highs, which we haven't seen since 2017. But the digital asset has started to stabilize quite a bit here.
“From a technical standpoint, (we are) kind of in the middle of no man's land here,” said Bauer, adding he sees BTC dropping down to around 15k-$15.5k level as an entry.
“I think up here again it's kind of a crapshoot, but this is really different than the last time,” he added. But this also means the downside would be limited.
This All Time High breakout is very similar to 2016.
Both times were trending with total Production Cost.
Both times tested the ATH, then re-visited the Production cost.
The fact that Production Cost is so near ATH, is very bullish.
It means downside is limited. pic.twitter.com/06zeiiJ3ni
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) December 2, 2020
According to Ki Young Ju, the CEO of data provider Crypto Quant, this is a battle between “BTC OG whales versus retail investors,” making him short-term bearish.
Exchanges' Inflow Mean has jumped above 2 BTC today, and when the price tapped $20k, it hit 2.5 BTC, the eight-month high since the March sell-off. While inflow is increasing, whales are no longer withdrawing from exchanges, which could keep them available to sell.
Amidst this, the Miners' Position Index also says, “miners are selling BTC pretty heavily.”
Even the exchange reserve isn’t in a downward trend anymore, and the last time we saw the kinds of uptick we are recording now was when the BTC price broke 11k in late July and the price “corrected after going sideways for a month.”
As such, Young Ju doesn’t think we can break $20k in the short term; instead, sideways or correction is expected. But he remains long-term bullish and expects a 20k breakout at the end of this year.