Today, bitcoin made yet another attempt at climbing up, hovering around $7,800 currently. However, most long-term holders are confident, despite the recent price dips amidst the spreading coronavirus (Covid-19) and oil price war.
On-chain fundamentals of the bitcoin network remain strong and with the supply restriction coming with halving in May, BTC price would experience upward pressure.
“While some market commentators speculate that coronavirus fears and economic turmoil may uproot confidence in bitcoin and overturn long-existing narratives, for the time being, those invested in the underlying value of BTC appear to remain assured in its long-term potential.”
Long-term holders confident
According to digital asset analysis firm Glassnode, LTH-SOPR (Long term holder – Spent Output Profit Ratio) that applies to “spent outputs that are at least 155 days old,” has decreased with the drop in price and is now testing 1-line.
When the value of this metric is above 1, investors are selling at a profit whereas below 1 indicates they are selling it at a loss.
Historically, because long-time holders have been through the ebbs and flows of bitcoin's price, they are used to volatility. It is easier to stay confident, play the long game and wait for the price to turn positive. The HODLers that likely to be invested in bitcoin for ideological reasons and believe in its fundamentals, can also afford to wait out the dip and aren’t scared by periodic peaks and troughs.
Unlike short term investors, HODLers tend to zoom out and look at the asset over the long-term which helps to reduce panic selling.
HODLers still holding onto their BTC
Another metric SOAB (Spent Output Age Bands) shows these long-term holders are still holding. This metric “represents the percentage of spent outputs on a given day which were a certain age,” determining whether long-term or short-term holders are more responsible for on-chain transactions.
Looking back at the BTC price drop that occurred after March 7th, you can see that transaction fluctuations from both short and long-term holders were pretty standard. No strong uptick from either side.
Since March 7th, short-term holders showed the largest increase, jumping from 12.78% to 18.59%. The 6m-12m age band, which represents LTH movements, also saw a meaningful increase from 1.17% to 2.03%. The 6m-12m age band, which represents LTH movements, also saw an increase from 1.17% to 2.03%.
Because these people bought BTC at higher prices than the current price, LTH-SOPR is decreasing but not as drastically as STH-SOPR.
Now, if we take a look at CDD (Coin days destroyed) that indicates “the cumulative age of all send outputs at a given time,” and according to Glassnode, it saw a spike reflecting “movement from long-term holders. However, the average lifespan of spent outputs (ASOL) decreased since the price started to drop, suggesting this spike in CDD was caused by either a larger number or higher value of transactions from short-term holders.”
So what does this all mean? Long-term holders are well, still holding for the most part. Some are selling off, but nothing to indicate panic selling.