Bitcoin On The Way to $12,000 as US Dollar Moves Down
After ending the market on a high note last week, this new week is seeing another good start.
What started as a not so pleasant Monday with Bitcoin losing about $200 turned out to be a green one with the digital asset going for $11,550.
“Some technical overhead resistance right now and a CME gap below at 11.1k, pretty low risk in buying the dip if it comes,” says on-chain analyst Willy Woo.
The price now has resistance coming at $13,000-$14,000 with trader Josh Rager seeing $12k real soon.
“Price is back up in previous range prior to breakdown, and personally, I don't see why we can't see $12k this week,” said Rager.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 12, 2020
Square's $50 million Bitcoin investment caused the price increase to prevent institutional investors from placing long positions as of yet.
While asset manager accounts long positions on CME went up from 523 to 703, Leveraged funds and other reportable positions accounts didn’t show a direction adjustment indicating a conservative approach, as per CME’s latest report, as of Oct. 6.
Open interest also rebounded from 7,324 to 7,511, after a two week contraction period.
The Longest Run
The good thing for bitcoin is despite a slew of regulatory moves like the UK FCA banning the sale of crypto derivatives and the DOJ issuing a crypto enforcement framework, Bitcoin held to $10,000 strong.
According to Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, regulatory clarity is good for crypto as it would clean up “bad actors.” “Despite select smaller pockets of risk,” they see it as a positive for the overall market, adding, “we believe the prevailing bull market trend is intact.”
But they do see DeFi “coming under pressure” for lack of KYC and AML protocols along with offshore quasi-equity exchange tokens and further risks with “crypto tokens exclusively listed on offshore exchanges where stricter U.S. investor prohibitions could limit liquidity and demand.”
Derisk Mode Still on
Unlike BTC, gold is seeing no such spike, trading at $1,924, the same as S&P 500 at just above 3,500. The US Dollar, however, has declined to 93, which is in strong negative correction to bitcoin.
The general market remains in de-risking mode ahead of the US Presidential election on Nov. 3rd.
However, investors are growing more hopeful of additional economic stimulus as President Donald Trump said that he wants to see a bigger stimulus package than either Democrats or Republicans were offering.
While Trump made a reversal from earlier last week’s threat to halt negotiations, Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell expressed doubt that Congress would pass a package before the election.
According to Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin “new information on the election, vaccines, and upcoming 3Q earnings represent substantial cross-currents for equities during the next two months.”