Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Bottom May Be Long Gone, Could See High of $5,900 Before Drawdown
Disclaimer: Not only is this, not financial advice, the author feels that it would be wildly irresponsible to continue to invest in the markets given the high propensity of a black swan event occurring in light of information pertaining to Bitfinex/Tether.
However, there are those that still wish to continue their forays into the markets, so this investment information will be disseminated for the benefit of said individuals.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
We’re going to do this price analysis slightly different and start with the H4 resolution.
Generally, in most situations, this is considered to be a bearish chart pattern.
Let’s go ahead and see what we can detect about this in modern literature:
Despite the illustration above, it should be noted that these patterns can either result in a bullish or bearish outbreak.
This pattern can also develop in various scenarios. Specifically, this scenario was preceded by some serious bullish action by Bitcoin before the pattern began to form.
Let’s see what literature dictates usually happens in such an instance:
In most cases, this is a reversal pattern, however, there is the possibility that it could result in a continuation.
Let’s check the literature to see what we should be looking for in order to confirm that this pattern is indeed what is forming on the Bitcoin charts currently:
The last portion of what was written above is the most important thing to consider.
Generally, based on this trading logic, we should expect the following:
Assuming Bitcoin did follow this price movement, it would dictate that the price would reach a high of $5.9k before a drawdown.
This pattern exists on the daily as well!
The chart above is the daily resolution for Bitcoin. None of the lines or text were altered before or after the change in resolution.
As we can see, the pattern still matches what we identified on the H4 resolution perfectly. Thus, we should look to this as a potential scenario for Bitcoin.
Relative Strength Index (14)
We’re only going to look at the RSI(14) on the daily resolution:
The arrows on the picture above are to show that we’ve seen four gradual increase in the ‘lows’ for the RSI(14) here as well as four gradual ‘highs’ for the RSI(14) too.
Also, the ZN RSI has signaled a ‘buy’ on the daily (this period thus far; less than an hour before the close and this does not ‘repaint’).
From all outlooks, the RSI (14) is signaling that we should expect a continued price increase over the next few periods (days).
There are two different R/R that I have here.
This is the probable first scenario:
After that is fulfilled, this may be the next likely scenario (without factoring in the impending ‘black swan’):
Bitcoin’s price is $50,681.98 BTC/USD exchange rate today. The real-time BTC market cap of $945.01 Billion currently ranks #1 with a chart dominance at 62.37%, daily trading volume of $14.05 Billion and live coin value change of BTC 6.48 in the last 24 hours.