Welcome to the latest installment of BitcoinExchangeGuide.com's daily roundup of all the top bitcoin pricing analysis and crypto community commentary.
We have included five unique story lines happening inside the bitcoin ecosystem all pertaining to the BTC value and current outlook as well as long term predictions.
- 1 Bitcoin Price and Crypto Market Eye Crucial Resistance
- 2 The Likelihood that Bitcoin Will Reach $10,000 in the Next Six Months Is Slim
- 3 It's Been 100 Days Since Bitcoin Hit Its Bottom in December 2018, BTC Price Up 25%, But Bulls Beware
- 4 Pomp:The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Will Be Unparalleled With the Last, Trillions of Dollars Rolling In
- 5 Expert Crypto CEO Claims Bitcoin “Doesn’t” Need to Scale Up to Replace Gold as a Store of Value
- 6 This Week's Latest Bitcoin Price Market Recaps:
Bitcoin Price and Crypto Market Eye Crucial Resistance
Bitcoin, for the first time in roughly three days, is sub 4k, standing at $3990 (bitmex). The most well-known digital asset has a 24 hour trading volume of ~ 9.1 billion USD.
Bitcoin has risen ~3.6% since the daily close on Thursday, March 19th 🎉. This has continued the recent uptrend in crypto markets as roughly 25 billion USD has been added to the total crypto market cap, resulting in a 20% increase 🚀.
The influx of capital, at these levels, has provided opportunities of high profitability for swing traders. Our team and community were privy to trade set ups on $LTC, $KMD, $XLM and $BTC from $3400. While we still have many alt positions open, it is important for us to analyze how we think the current price structure may play out in order to maximize profitability.
Our team eye’s the $4000-$4200 level as pivotal resistance before $BTC can further the climb towards $6k, which is likely to perform as resistance once met.
However, before this scenario will play out, we believe that $BTC may be rejected at $4000-4200 once again. This would line up well with the liquidity zones we have been outlying for weeks (see charts below👇).
We are still maintaining our bullish sentiment while believing there may be opportunity to dollar-cost-average positions in the $3500-3600 range. We may decide to take profits on our ongoing positions in the next 24 hours to hedge against a short-term pullback.
Updates will occur as price action develops.
The Likelihood that Bitcoin Will Reach $10,000 in the Next Six Months Is Slim
Much of the cryptocurrency community has been celebrating the recent rise of Bitcoin over the $4,000 threshold, but how much further can this asset go. As each day goes by, Bitcoin misses the mark towards the five-figure projection that multiple experts have concurred on. With the current state of the industry, a recent report from Skew Markets indicates that the likelihood of the market reaching the $10,000 mark is just 4.6%.
Odds of bitcoin >10k by September = 4.6%
What do you think? pic.twitter.com/5BVeRbETem
— skew (@skew_markets) March 18, 2019
Furthermore, it is not looking good that Bitcoin will rise above price targets that are lower. For instance, the prediction that Bitcoin will reach $8,000 within the same time frame is not even 10%. Reaching $6,000 seems to be a much more likely price point by September at 20%, though that means there is an 80% chance that Bitcoin will not reach it.
After breaking the $4,000 resistance, the token dipped back down below, but it is presently residing at $4,041.85. Breaking the resistance level coincided with the rise of the volume, as the month reached $10 billion in daily volumes five times already.
Analyst Kevin Rooke commented on these changes, saying that the increase has been about 150% within the last five months, adding that the last time the market saw these levels was back in January 2018.
Bitcoin's daily exchange volume is booming 🚀
Volume has increased by ~150% in the last 5 months 📈
Average daily volume hasn't been this high since Jan 2018 👀
Only 9 days in the last 12 months had $10B+ in volume 💰
5 of those days have been in March 2019 🍀 pic.twitter.com/0VE9bX9iGQ
— Kevin Rooke (@kerooke) March 16, 2019
Right now, the interesting timing of this rise in price is that it also coincides with the falling Bitcoin dominance. Right now, Bitcoin’s dominance is at 50.8%, though it has been at about 53% until now. Considering the bearish market over the last year, the lack of likelihood of reaching the same success of 2017 is completely understandable. However, the crypto bulls have continued to make major predictions, like Tom Lee of Fundstrat, who said that the fair price of Bitcoin will be between $15,000 and $20,000.
Tim Draper, another notable bull, continued to hold onto the idea that this crypto asset will see a $250,000 price tag by 2022. He believes that it will take some infiltration into the traditional money market shares. He explained that there is $86 trillion in fiat currency floating around, and he believes that a 5% market share would need to go towards $250,000 in Bitcoin. He adds that the only change that needs to happen is that Bitcoin would be “used to by Starbucks coffee,” which means that the world “just opens up.”
Earlier in 2019, draper said that crypto adoption is already growing substantially as everyday retailers become more willing to accept it. Zhao Dong, a Bitcoin trader and Chinese billionaire, has been a major bull for the market, and believes that crypto will see a $50,000 price tag by 2021.
Realistically, the only way to truly find out which of these predictions is right is by waiting. However, if the crypto industry starts to decline, it is possible to see the market collapse all over again.
It's Been 100 Days Since Bitcoin Hit Its Bottom in December 2018, BTC Price Up 25%, But Bulls Beware
On December 15, 2018, Bitcoin price hit its yearly low at $3,200 which many also saw as the bottom of the leading cryptocurrency. Though various experts are still expecting more pain ahead, since hitting its yearly lowest, it has been nearly 100 days, 94 to be exact.
Since then, Bitcoin price has risen more than 25 percent, currently trading around $4,046 with 24-hours gains of 0.70 percent, as per the data provided by Coinmarketcap. However, the daily trading volume has slid down to $8.8 billion.
As crypto trader and investor Josh Rager points out, it’s hard to be bullish in the current scenario where volume has taken a deep hit across all the exchanges.
“Have been waiting patiently for the past few weekly closes to show. Volume increase was a mere tease for a market turn around. Looking forward to be bullish but now just isn't the time. In fact, new research shows volume as a whole is down 80% across all exchanges since Dec '17.”
However, this low volume according to Rager doesn’t mean the sellers are gone as he further explains, “Look at that weekly wick, if sellers are gone this uptrend would continue and not constantly halt at low 4k resistance. Majority are likely algos and market makers.”
He further believes, “large red volume is ahead” that coincides with his call for Bitcoin to hit the bottom this year below $3k.
Just like many other experts, Rager is expecting a sideways movement for Bitcoin for the most part of 2019 and no breaking above the $6k level.
“Some mega bullishness for Bitcoin on CT. Cool story, Break and close above $4200 and we'll re-evaluate – nothing has changed. I don't see it breaking $6k for many months to come. Altcoins, on the other hand, should be used to trade, make profits and accumulate more Bitcoin.”
Crypto trader and investor, Credible Crypto also echoed similar thoughts as he pointed towards the low volume as well, “note the lack of volume on the last move down. This looks more like consolidation rather than an impulsive move down due to the volume profile at this time.”
This puts his Bitcoin levels to be around $4.1k with the final push only to have it drop down to the range of $3.5 and $3.6k. From here, the analyst expects Bitcoin to go back up to his “ultimate target” that is $4.3k-$4.5k which is to be seen as an “important” level in the short-term.
“Overnight we tested our demand zone (prior supply zone) around $3930 and picked up off of it. We need to lose this level to officially rule out a final push up. Until then I am being cautious here.”
Pomp:The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Will Be Unparalleled With the Last, Trillions of Dollars Rolling In
Anthony Pompliano, the founder of investment firm Morgan Creek Digital has been one of the biggest proponents of cryptocurrencies. In his new post that highlights the movements of incumbent asset managers, he says that we could see more M&A across the sector as aging founders of alternative managers seek a liquidity event and money managers bolster capabilities in alternatives.
He thinks that blockchain and crypto-related investment opportunities will be one of the fastest growing sectors in the alternative asset management space in the next 10 years. This means that every alternative asset manager will have to create a strategy to help their LPs gain exposure to the nascent industry.
As new firms keep entering the ecosystem, they will have two of the following options:
- Spend huge amounts of money to hire talented and experienced crypto investors.
- Pay up to acquire asset management firms that specialize in blockchain and crypto.
However, these problems are harder to solve than point out. Pomp goes ahead to give the reasons for it.
“The most obvious is the lack of culture fit between most crypto asset management firms and the more traditional alternative asset managers. The difference is apparent in everything from dress code to ethos, which will make 50% or more of the crypto asset management firms unattractive opportunities for the incumbents. Additionally, there are current challenges around capacity constraints (the entire crypto market is valued at less than $150 billion currently), regulatory uncertainty, and a lack of understanding on how to underwrite the risk in many crypto investment opportunities.”
He thinks that as these issues begin to get solved, he expects the macro-trend of consolidation in alternative asset management will spill over to include crypto asset managers. This is because of his assumption that every alternative manager will be forced to manage funds in the crypto industry in the next decade.
He goes on to say:
“Some firms will drag their feet and wait to see how the industry plays out. Others will be opportunistic and gain a significant advantage by having a head start. If you thought 2017’s bull market was big, just wait till the trillions of dollars allocated to alternative assets begin to roll in. The next bull market will be bigger than anything we have ever seen before.”
Expert Crypto CEO Claims Bitcoin “Doesn’t” Need to Scale Up to Replace Gold as a Store of Value
According to a recent tweet by Brendan Blumer, the CEO of Block.One, BTC will replace gold as a global store of value within a short span of just 20 years. Not only that, on the subject of Bitcoin’s scalability issues, Blumer added that the flagship cryptocoin doesn’t need to scale up since it already possesses a “plethora of unique SOV related properties”.
The Case for Bitcoin
While many experts agree that in order for Bitcoin to enter the mainstream, its developers need to scale the currency’s framework so as to meet the global transaction demands of its investors. However, that opinion is not shared by Blumer who believes quite strongly that the premier cryptocoin doesn't need to scale up since it is already on its way to becoming the digital equivalent of ‘gold.’
On the subject, Bulmer stated the following:
“Over the next two decades, Bitcoin will replace gold as the leading commodity to store value,”
#Bitcoin won’t scale because it doesn’t need to
— BrendanBlumer (@BrendanBlumer) March 17, 2019
Additionally, Bulmer is also of the opinion that most crypto related financial activity will anyway not take place on the Bitcoin blockchain, rather, everyday payments and tx’s will most likely be facilitated via applications that have been built atop the Bitcoin base layer (such as the Lightning Network).
“Most of the activity will flow to scalable layer-two solutions, but Bitcoin’s awareness and liquidity will continue to compound,”
More on the Subject
Bulmer’s view is supported by Microsoft and in a report released by the tech giant late last year, the firm claimed that layer-two scaling solutions such as LN are clearly “superior and more useful” when compared to on-chain options. This is because, Microsoft’s blockchain research team believes that on-chain scaling approaches more often than not tend to “degrade the decentralized state of a network” .
Other Quick Takeaways to Bear in Mind
- The Block.one CEO is not the only one who has dubbed Bitcoin to be ‘Gold 2.0’. For example, a couple of months back, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss told a respected media outlet that “bitcoin is better at being gold than gold.”
- In a similar vein, Wall Street veteran ‘Max Keiser’ also went on record last year to state that Bitcoin will soon become the “world’s primary reserve currency”.
In closing out this piece, it is worth pointing out that in response to the World Gold Council’s annual report, Keiser stated that Gold was a dying commodity and that Bitcoin was soon going to become the world’s most trusted SOV (Store of Value).
“To really get Satoshi’s vision, it’s peer-to-peer gold… that’s what Bitcoin accomplishes, that’s what Bitcoin is, fight me on this, go ahead, but you’re wrong,”