- Bitcoin registers upward price movement across major holidays
- Google Searches for Bitcoin climbs immediately ahead of holidays only to drop during them
- BTC movement during holidays might have become a self-fulfilling prophecy
In late November, we talked about how we need to “Get Ready for a Thanksgiving Day after Spike in Bitcoin Price” as past data suggested a jump. And we did see a spike as BTC went from $7,400 to $7,640 and then another hike the next day to above $7,800.
So, are we going to experience yet another holiday-induced pump?
Holidays it says have correlated with temporary upswings in BTC’s price, particularly if they coincide with bull runs.
What’s Coming our Way? -8% or +12%
Thanksgiving on the last Thursday of November had BTC in the midst of a three-day climb in price. After bottoming out at $6,515 on Nov. 25, the price rebounded 20.8% in the following four days as it peaks at $7,870 on Nov. 29. But then on Dec. 2, the price fell back to $7,345.
Though there is no knowing with certainty that the Thanksgiving holiday played a role in this rebound, the data is consistent with the crypto performance data during holidays.
On Labor Day, Sept. 2, BTC price increased about 5% and a similar behavior was seen over the Fourth of July when BTC jumped 14% between July 2 and July 4.
SFOX also found that Bitcoin holiday performance correlated with increases in the relative volume of Google searches for “bitcoin’. Relative Google search volume for ‘bitcoin’ peaked before major US holidays only to bottom out during the events themselves.
Google search volume for ‘bitcoin’ in the past 7-days, Source: Google Trends
If we take a look at the past performance of the leading cryptocurrency on the two days before Christmas, bitcoin recorded negative returns on both the days. However, the Christmas Eve day has been a positive one majority of the time but by a small percentage only.
The day after Christmas Eve has been a much positive day with an average of 2.57% and a maximum of 12.28% spike. For the last 3 years, we have been seeing greens on this day.
A Self-fulfilling Prophecy?
So, what’s behind this upsurge? Previously it has been analyzed that it could be because of families getting together and experiencing FOMO, leading to researching and purchasing BTC.
However, the most recent data shows Google searches peaking before holidays and not after. As such the FOMO might not be a plausible explanation rather it could be whale movement.
Whale Alert that tracks and alerts its audience of large transactions made on Bitcoin and other major blockchains shared with SFOX that its large following on Twitter might “actually influence the price in itself.”
It could also be simply traders expecting the market to move during the holidays.
“Market participants could be researching BTC’s position ahead of holidays and then taking long positions in BTC in an expectation of a short-term price increase over the holiday, creating a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy that actually does drive the price of BTC up in the short term.”
Regardless of the forces behind BTC’s holiday behavior, the flash cryptocurrency remains sensitive to major US holidays and now it needs to be seen how do we fare on Christmas and the New Year eve this time.