Bitcoin Recording Third Best Quarterly Close & Another Strong Q2, But Q3 Paints a ‘Challenging’ Picture
Bitcoin is currently trading above $9,100 in green with just $1.1 billion in ‘real’ trading volume. The leading digital currency has recovered 140% since the March crash but is up only 27% YTD.
Despite the minimal yearly gains and ending the first quarter of 2020 on a red note of 10.58%, the second quarter has turned out to be surprisingly good despite the coronavirus pandemic triggering a sell-off in the global markets.
Today, on the last day of June and the second quarter, we are close to ending this month and quarter at about $9,150.
This makes the third-best quarterly close for bitcoin in its young history. The best quarter close was Q4 of 2017 at 13,660, followed by 2019’s quarter 2nd when bitcoin ended it at $10,590.
After Q2 of 2020, comes Q4 of 2019 when bitcoin was at $7,180.
Around the current price level, bitcoin would mark a gain of more than 42%, which also makes it the fourth-best second quarter since 2014.
After 157.5% gains in 2019, 125.3% in 2017, and 61.8% in 2016, 2020’s 42.2% gains is the best second quarter.
Interestingly, the second user has been a green quarter for bitcoin for the majority of the past seven years except for the 2018 bear market. And bitcoin continued this historical trend this year.
However, this positive development means bad news might be ahead. In contrast with Q2, Q3 heavily tilts towards losses, much like Q1. And we did end up in red in Q1 of 2020. Now, it needs to be seen if Bitcoin will continue ranging, or we will encounter a drop in price.
“Excluding the exceptional 2017 vintage, Q3 has been historically more challenging,” noted Skew Markets.
As we reported, analyst Rekt Capital has said it is nothing out of the ordinary because, after the reward halving of 2016, bitcoin recorded losses before going on a bull rally.
What about USDT?
Stablecoins have been seeing strong growth throughout the coronavirus pandemic only to slow down in the past few weeks. Amidst bitcoin’s lackluster performance, popular stablecoin (USDT) has surpassed $10 billion market cap, as per Messari. This has many expecting a run-up in BTC.
This is because “Tether has historically printed USDT in large batches in anticipation of future demand and distributions,” said Coin Metrics in its latest report.
According to the report, on-chain supply doesn't mean new supply in public markets, and USDT held by the Tether Treasury, which is currently at $9.79 billion, is a more accurate indicator of the supply in public markets.
The correlation between free float USDT and Bitcoin’s price was clearer in early 2019 when BTC rose from $4,000 to $12,000.
A bullish picture meanwhile was painted by Bitcoin hodlers as those holding BTC for a year or more made a new all-time high of 62%.
Pointing to this, Alistair Milne noted, “Similar levels of HODL last seen during a 3-month consolidation at around $400 before starting a two-year bull run,” and guesses the cycle peak to be around 70%.
They also believe the “Bitcoin spot market is starting a bull market,” which “will pull the mining market out of this winter.”