Bitcoin Still Looking Bearish: Expert Traders In-Depth BTC Price Analysis
Its been a little while since we’ve taken an in-depth look at the price for Bitcoin. So, here’s a quick update for all those that were wondering.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
We’re going to start this price analysis with a look at the hourly (H1) charts:
As one can see in the picture above, the price of Bitcoin has consistently failed to breach the overhead resistance at $3.6k-$3.7k for the last several periods on the hourly resolution.
This has occurred in conjunction with a waning RSI(14) [identified in the picture above as well via notation], which is extremely bearish. There is no notable divergence between the price and RSI on the hourly resolution.
Based on this view alone, it appears that Bitcoin is primed for bearish action in the near future. However, in order to get a better idea of what Bitcoin may do later in the future, we must analyze these charts on higher resolutions.
Bitcoin Daily Resolution Analysis
From the chart above, there are quite a few things that we need to take note of here.
Currently, the price action for Bitcoin has been moving in a trading range for the previous 51 days, which is substantial.
However, the distance between the top and bottom of this traded range is fairly significant. Using TradingView’s tools, we measured an approximate difference of 33% from the bottom of the traded range to the top. So, there have still been monumental gains at stake for traders to gain during this consolidation period. Albeit, they have come at a slower rate than what most are used to in crypto.
Relative Strength Index
The RSI(14) on the daily resolution is showing extreme positive divergence.
However, as noted in prior price analyses, the RSI(14) for Bitcoin on the daily resolution has failed to breach the 55–60 point mark since early September/late August:
The RSI(14) does have some distance to go before reaching this point once again on the daily resolution.
Zerononcense Balance of Power RSI
The Zerononcense Balance of Power RSI (custom indicator) shows us that Bitcoin has been continually sold off over the past few weeks (which is bearish):
No EMA Evaluation
As a side note, there will be no evaluation of the EMA on any resolution because the hourly resolution is too condensed to allow for a meaningful extrapolation of EMA data and the price is currently below all significant EMA resistance/support points on the daily chart (as well as higher resolutions).
3D Resolution for Bitcoin
For this portion of the price analysis, we’re going to go ahead and take a look at the longer-term charts to get a better idea of Bitcoin’s potential future price movement:
The chart above is that of Bitcoin on the 3-Day resolution with the Zerononcense Reversion Ribbon V2 overlaid on it.
It is a custom indicator, but in most ways it is read similarly to how the classic MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). There are just a few tweaks on the settings to garner more information about the underlying asset.
With regards to the chart above, there are a few things that are worth noting:
- There was a recent time period of about 8 or so candles for which the indicator was reflecting heavy buy pressure. This is a pretty significant reading since there wasn’t a lot of price movement in particular during that time span. This is considered to be an ‘extreme’ condition, which means that an impending reversal is in the works.
- The Histogram showed us a significant increase in convergence when the indicator was reading as a ‘buy signal’ (lines were green). That eventually led to the indicator flipping to a ‘sell signal’, and the ‘sell signal’ has subsequently seen divergence. In laymen’s terms, these two aforementioned conditions are extremely bearish.
- The ribbon has a significant amount of distance that it can travel before it reaches an ‘extreme’. It is just below the ‘zero line’ currently, which means that this price action represents a ‘baseline’ for Bitcoin.
When aggregating all of this information together, there doesn’t appear to be much upside for the price of Bitcoin.
In the immediate-term (within the next few hours/couple of days), it appears likely that the price will face an imminent decline.
However, the daily resolution does reflect a potential for a latent price increase when considering the upward trend of the RSI(14) as well as the extraordinary positive divergence. But part of this bullish sentiment is negated when we consider the fact that the RSI(14) has failed to break past the ‘halfway mark’ on the RSI(14) scale reading since late August.
The 3D resolution is definitively bearish though, which creates a conflicting view for Bitcoin, overall.
But the author’s conclusion is that Bitcoin must be deemed bearish.