Bitcoin Trading Like a ‘High Beta’ But Social Sentiment Remains Subdued
After a somber start of the week, Bitcoin is all set to end it on a higher note.
In the late hours of Thursday, the leading digital currency started recovering and went above $10,800. Since then, we have been keeping around $10,700 in the green on the back of just over $1 billion ‘real’ trading volume.
Altcoins are also feeling the gains with YFI around $29,500 and more cryptos in green than red.
If the current positive momentum continues for another day or two, the bears will flip to bulls again…
— SpartanBlack (@SpartanBlack_1) September 26, 2020
According to trader @SmartContracter, however, over the next few days, a decline from $11,200 will signal the start of a move down and “not the end of it.” “Will be looking to short 10.9k and only longing if 11.2k is taken out again although I suspect it wont,” he said.
Many still expect that a move below $10k might not come, given that during the last bull market, the flagship cryptocurrency kept holding its weekly 21 EMA.
— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) September 26, 2020
What’s disappointing is BTC’s weighted social sentiment for Twitter, “which measures the positive/negative ratio of comments multiplied by the overall frequency of comments.”
It is currently sitting at a 2-year low, showing a clear pattern of non-believers in the community after the crypto market experienced an aggressive retracement over the past few days.
However, “this level of negativity can often lead to a positive rally, as we're seeing thus far today. Markets most commonly follow the path of least expected,” noted crypto data provider Santiment.
Still, it’s worth mentioning that the upcoming US Presidential elections, in early November, spells uncertainty and volatility across the markets. All the markets are acting like the same, whether it’s stock, gold, bond, or crypto.
“It's really all the same at the moment. Crypto is simply trading like a high beta, and Defi like the highest beta of them all,” said trader and economist Alex Kruger.
But bitcoin’s correlation with the equity market is short-term, which many believe will soon end. The number of bitcoin entities, which is organic growth as opposed to hedge funds and whale trades moving capital in and out of BTC as they trade and hedge positions, continues to grow that will make sure of it.
If you want to see data behind the upcoming decoupling of BTC from the stock markets powered by BTC's internal adoption, here's some @glassnode data. This is the active users of BTC after filtering for unique players (ignores multi wallet addresses belong to one entity). https://t.co/FvGWUUlSc8 pic.twitter.com/gEweb9vYOY
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) September 26, 2020