Bitcoin’s ‘Bearish’ Like Gold; Falls Under $11,350 as Market Focuses on Fed Chair Speech
- In yet another repeat of the past three weeks, Bitcoin wiped out the losses made on Monday.
- The largest cryptocurrency made its way to $11,850 on the first day of the week only to drop today to $11,338, -3.5%.
With ‘real’ volume relatively low at around $1.6 billion, bitcoin has upper resistance at approximately $11,900 and an intraday threshold located at $11,630. “BTC still has the probability to test lower support at $11,200, in the short-term,” states OKEx.
Bears are currently looking at $11,000 as their first stop, if the price closes below the trendline, with $10,500 as a likely scenario.
Trader Arjun also noted that Bitcoin “couldn't hold the breakout” and is “quite bearish,” now.
Meanwhile, trader Josh Rager expects the digital asset to trade sideways, “daily close above $10,500 remains bullish,” allowing “altcoins to continue to make moves.”
Altcoins have been having a great time as bitcoin took a breather since hitting $12,000 on the first day of August only to range. While today’s red move in bitcoin translates to losses for altcoins, they are not deeper red like usual. Also, DeFi continues to eat away BTC’s market share as the likes of ATOM (9.75%), LEND (18.78%), and DOT (11.72%) record gains.
Futures Market Seeing Traction
While the spot isn’t feeling bullish, the bitcoin futures market is strong, with the premium rates on the CME futures remaining high. However, the premiums on retail-focused platforms have fallen significantly as the market calms down.
While volume on CME futures is fluctuating between $300 million to $750 million, Bakkt is recording strong sessions.
After ending the July on record note, Bakkt bitcoin futures hit $135 million in volume on Monday, up from $57 million on August 19.
Another strong session for Bakkt #bitcoin futures yesterday
Seeing significant pickup in volumes over the last month with in particular good interest for the physically-settled contracts pic.twitter.com/r6uP3RfY3b
— skew (@skewdotcom) August 25, 2020
Focus on Jackson Hole Speech
Everyone is currently waiting for Thursday with all eyes fixated on the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
BTC’s price fell alongside the price of gold, which dropped to $1,919 down from its all-time high of about $2,060 earlier this month.
What’s not taking a retreat is the stock market with S&P 500 hitting new ATHs, at 3,431 up 1.3% from February high.
Just to put things into perspective: The average US worker must now work 128 hours to buy 1 share of S&P 500. That's almost a record. In the 1980s, it took less than 20 hours. pic.twitter.com/oK2RqDai5m
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 25, 2020
S&P 500’s uptrend has another Wall Street bear Citigroup Inc.’s Tobias Levkovich conceding and raising his year-target for the equity market thanks to “unbridled” Fed easing and negative real rates.
On Thursday, during the virtual conference, Powell is expected to outline the central bank's efforts to spur inflation back to a healthy level.
This is a big deal. Changing how the Fed measures inflation means the FED won't stop QE before summer 2021, at the earliest. Negative for $USD, negative for long term bonds ( $TLT), positive for risk assets ( $SPY & $XLF), positive for precious metals ( $GLD) & $BTC https://t.co/Tx0tDxGLfJ
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) August 25, 2020
“TL;DR: The Fed is about start actively reducing the value of the money in your bank account,” said analyst Mati Greenspan.
And that would mean, what has been already going up, will continue to go up, with gold and bitcoin joining in as well.