Bitcoin’s Correlation with S&P 500 Drops by 90% as a New 2020 High is Made
Bitcoin spiked to a new 2020 high of nearly $13,300, a level last seen in early July 2019 after Paypal announced it would allow its customers to use cryptocurrencies.
The leading cryptocurrency jumped 8% yesterday and 16.6% in the past three days. Another such move and BTC would break 2019’s high of $13,900, recorded in January 2018 before that.
PayPal shares also jumped by 5.5% on the news, the biggest increase since May.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD had retraced a bit to trade just under $13,000 with ‘real’ trading volume gaining strength at $3.9 billion, up 438% from early on Monday when it was under $700 million.
Bitcoin perpetual swaps volume also reached its highest levels of the year, making a new yearly record of $21.58 billion, with Binance leading the way with $5.45 billion, as per IntoTheBlock.
Besides PayPal to announce buy, sell, and hold crypto options along with allowing its users to shop at 26 million merchants in its network, another publicly-traded company added Bitcoin to its Treasury.
Breaking the Correlation
With these gains, now comes the decoupling.
The de-correlation that started this week continues to accelerate. The one-month correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500 was above 57% last week when it took a big drop of about 90%, falling to a mere 6.2%, as per Skew.
Traditional investors are waiting for stimulus with the White House and Democrats moving closer to an agreement on a new coronavirus relief package, but with just two weeks until the US presidential election; the market is not bouncing on speculation alone now.
While Bitcoin’s one-month correlation with gold saw a positive shift, it has been a tiny one as the yellow metal is stuck around $1,900.
It has actually been the US Dollar that has been moving in sharp contrast to the BTC as the USD index falls to 92.4 level, which according to analyst Mati Greenspan, is “further supporting the rise of the crypto market.”
But trader and economist Alex Kruger found the dollar side “strong correction very odd” given that “cases in Europe are spiking hard, which will likely lead to added stimulus, helping push the euro lower. And contested elections would drive a dollar bid as risk-off kicks-in.”
In 2020, today actually marks the 100th day that Bitcoin has traded above $10,000.
After a slow Q3, Q4 is turning out to be explosive, as has been expected based on its historical performance. The first of this quarter is already running a hot streak as the BTC price rises about 19% in October and over 78% YTD.
In the crypto market, the strong move this week that took us to a 15-month high came after the largest total exchange outflow of BTC on Oct. 18th since April 29th.
However, PayPal’s news pushing BTC prices high has taken the market by surprise as participants haven’t been expecting the new 2020 high before December.
Interestingly, the upward move has 98% of Bitcoin UTXOs in a state of profit, a level not seen at the top of the bull market in December 2017, as per data provider Glassnode.
But now that the Bitcoin market has been kicked into high gear, the wait is for a new all-time high that will get the real party started.