Bitcoin’s Longer Cycle Theory Dies with the Recent Pump?
- Analyst Looposhi compares the Nov 2012-July 2016 and July 2016-May 2020 cycle
- Bitcoin is enjoying a bullish rally for the past 90 days that have us surging 173.9 percent. Currently, BTC/USD is trading at $10,903 with 24 hours gains of 0.52 percent.
This is an indication that we are in the 4th Bitcoin bull cycle that would take us to a new peak.
However, it took 3.5 years for Bitcoin to break its previous all-time high from the bull run of 2013 and currently we are just 1.5 years since the last peak occurred so we have got a lot of time to reach a new peak.
If we take a look at the historical bull cycles, the peak of the first cycle took 329 days that further extended to 903 days in the second bull cycle. The last bull cycle that is of 2017, that took us to the all-time high of $20,000, was reached in 1477 days.
This tells us that each of these cycles is getting longer and longer as pointed out by many experts. Recently, crypto trader and investor Josh Rager took to Twitter to share how each cycle added 574 more days to reach the next peak. By this standard, the well-followed trader that has been providing updates backed by technical data stated the peak of this cycle would take 2051 days falling in July 2023 at $150k.
$BTC Bull Market Cycles
As you look at the historical cycles on the Bitcoin chart, you will notice that each bull market cycle exceeds the length of the previous uptrend
Don't worry about pullbacks, Bitcoin is likely less than 1/4 into the current uptrend to the next peak high pic.twitter.com/CCesZphBWD
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) May 31, 2019
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Looposhi sees the current rally in the market to be “weird.” The analyst that has 57k followers on twitter shares two charts on top of each other that compare the period of November 2012 – July 2016 with July 2016 – May 2020.
Per this, both the times, we had a bull rally that topped at the end of the year and went through a crypto winter throughout the next year. Both the cycle followed this pattern however, the anomaly occurred in the next phase.
After the crash in 2014, most of the 2015 Bitcoin traded sideways that gave altcoins the opportunity to pump. This was also the period of accumulation after BTC hit the bottom and people bought the dip.
This time after hitting the bottom in December 2018 at $3,150, Bitcoin traded sideways for only about three months before it started pumping. In April, we jumped from $4k to $5,500 then in May we shot through several levels going to $9k level. Currently, we are in June and we have climbed to a new high of 2019 at $11,200.
However, the analyst says,
“if we consider this green phase no1 in our series. And work from bottom to top. It could make sense.”
With this, the new target is
“1 BTC = $70.000 USD.”
Overall, the majority of the market is currently ultra bullish, working its way to recover the least peak of $20,000 after breaking through the FOMO level at $10,000.