Bitcoin’s Longest Slump Since May Severs its Pandemic-era Correlation With Tech Stocks
The beating continues in the cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin drops to as low as $55,700 on Thursday and Ether to $3,970. This has the total cryptocurrency market cap dropping to $2.56 trillion.
Some crypto assets like Loopring, Fantom, SHIB, NEAR, Zcash, LINK, and Kusama have fallen as much as 20% to 27% in the past week. Still, a few cryptos are enjoying gains, with The Sandbox, MANA, and Crypto.com up 50% to 75%.
For the fifth consecutive day, Bitcoin slipped, which is the longest slump since mid-May. The cryptocurrency has dropped below its average prices over the last 50 days. According to Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., $54,500 is the next important level with a drop below $50k to raise “serious warning flags.”
“The pullback, while sharp, has not impacted our positive intermediate-term gauges. Short-term oversold conditions are within reach for Bitcoin, Ether, and many altcoins,” said Katie Stockton, founder of research firm Fairlead Strategies. “So we would look for their collective pullback to mature later this week.”
With the latest weakness in the market, the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 futures is evaporating.
The 30-day correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq futures has fallen to almost zero in recent days, which hit a 2021 peak at the end of September at 0.56, suggesting Bitcoin and tech stocks were moving in tandem often.
The correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin has been generally positive since February last year. But since September-end, Bitcoin is up 40%, surpassing Nasdaq 100’s 11% increase. Last week, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $69,000, emerging as an inflation hedge.
However, according to Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research with Bank Julius Baer in Zurich, this evolution of the relationship between the cryptocurrency and Bitcoin doesn't support the argument that it is a reliable, modern-day store of value for portfolios.
The lack of a consistent and negative correlation between them suggests that Bitcoin is not yet a safe haven, he said, stressing that during times of financial-market stress, it tends to suffer like other riskier assets.
Defending Bitcoin, Esme Pau, an analyst with China Tonghai Securities, argued that bitcoin is a “sensible” way of buffering against inflation.
“I would urge investors to focus on the longer-term trend and do not think short-term changes in correlation should be considered representative,” she said.